Why beef prices are staying high: USDA counts the fewest cattle placed in feedlots in a September since records began in 1996

Farm PolicyProduce Prices

Oct 26

Written by Angelo Grinceri

The Morning Harvest: Farm and Food News, No. 018, Monday, October 26, 2026

Today in 30 seconds

Top story: Feedlots took in 1,777,000 cattle in September, down 12 percent and the lowest September since 1996, while ground beef averaged $6.79 a pound.
Recall check: FDA warns against all lots of Haifa Smoked Fish cold smoked sprats over botulism risk, and the company refused to recall them.
Why it costs what it costs: Sweet potatoes cost 50 to 55 cents a pound at a North Carolina shed and $1.21 a pound in the average ad.
In season: A 3 pound bag of mandarins is $4.78 across 7,612 ads, the most advertised of our three picks.
Could you grow this: A mature pecan tree can make 40 to 50 pounds of nuts a year, but expect 8 to 10 years to get there.
Garden State minute: A 74 year old Middlesex County farmer leased 400 more acres and is bringing in the next generation.

Why are beef prices so high? USDA counts the fewest cattle placed in feedlots for a September

What USDA counted. On Friday, October 23, 2026, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its monthly Cattle on Feed report, a survey of feedlots holding 1,000 head or more. A feedlot is where young cattle are fed grain to finishing weight before going to a meat packer. “Placements” are cattle entering feedlots in the month. September placements were 1,777,000 head, against 2,021,000 a year earlier: 88 percent of last year, down 12 percent, and the lowest for a September since the series began in 1996. By weight: under 600 pounds, 360,000 head; 600 to 699, 260,000; 700 to 799, 385,000; 800 to 899, 422,000; 900 to 999, 255,000; 1,000 and over, 95,000. “Marketings,” fed cattle shipped to packers, were 1,524,000 against 1,632,000, or 93 percent of last year (down about 6.6 percent). Cattle on feed October 1 totaled 11,372,000 against 11,418,000, down 0.4 percent: 7,072,000 steers (up slightly) and 4,300,000 heifers (down 1 percent). “Other disappearance,” meaning deaths and shipments out, was 49,000. A Reuters poll reported by Pro Farmer expected 1.871 million placements, so the actual count came in about 94,000 head, or 5 percent, lower (our arithmetic).

What beef costs now, and what it costs per family. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) says 100 percent ground beef averaged $6.79 a pound in September 2026, down 1.9 percent from $6.92 in August, which secondhand reports call the highest in the series. A year earlier it was $6.32, so it is up 47 cents, or about 7.4 percent. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) tracks a price index instead: beef and veal were 3.5 percent above a year ago in September and 1.3 percent below August, with a 2026 forecast of up 8.7 percent. Prices are high and dipped in September. They are not still climbing. All fresh beef averaged $8.84 a pound at retail in 2025 (Kansas State). I couldn’t confirm a New Jersey number. Our arithmetic, not USDA’s: at about 59 pounds of beef per person, a family of four eats roughly 237 pounds a year. At the 47 cent ground beef rise that is about $111 more a year. At the broader 3.5 percent gain, about 31 cents on $8.84, it is about $73. Roughly $70 to $110.

What ranchers and feedlots get, per cow and per head. Feeder cattle are young animals that feedlots buy. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $343.57 on October 23 (Western Livestock Journal). Fed cattle are finished animals sold to packers: Friday’s cash trade was $226 per hundredweight (100 pounds) live, per DTN. One market tracker put the weekly five area average near $224 against about $232 a year ago. The Choice boxed beef cutout, the wholesale price of cuts, was $365.79. So feeders are costly while fed cattle sit slightly under last year, and feedlots are squeezed. Kansas State’s Glynn Tonsor projects losses of $220 to $380 per head on cattle closing out from September 2026 through March 2027, after a record $606 profit in 2025. Cow-calf ranches fare better: about $990 per cow above cash costs in 2026. Our arithmetic: a 100 cow ranch at that rate is about $99,000 above cash costs, average herd, before labor and land.

Why the herd is this small. NASS counted 86.2 million cattle and calves on January 1, 2026, including 27.6 million beef cows, down 1 percent. The total herd is the lowest since 1951 (Drovers). The 2025 calf crop was 32.9 million, the smallest since 1941; NASS estimates 32.5 million for 2026. Mexican feeder cattle once filled the gap: about 1.24 million head in 2024, about 230,000 in 2025, and about 41,000 so far in 2026 through October 16 (Pro Farmer). The border closed over New World screwworm, a flesh eating fly larva. Pasture is poor too: 45 percent is rated poor or very poor (DTN, citing USDA, October 20). And packers are shrinking: Tyson in Lexington, Nebraska and JBS in Souderton, Pennsylvania closed in 2026, and Tyson announced Joslin, Illinois will close. Packer margin was about minus $253 per head in June (Sterling, via Meatingplace), with plants near 81 percent of capacity (Drovers).

How the cattle cycle works, and what we don’t know yet. A cow carries a calf about nine months, and a calf needs at least 17 months to reach slaughter (NPR, May 29, 2026). A heifer kept to breed today reaches the shelf as beef in about two to three years. Rebuilding has not started in the numbers: beef cows were down 1 percent in January and July, though replacement heifers rose 3 percent to 3.8 million (farmdoc daily). The next full herd count is the January Cattle report; I couldn’t confirm the date yet. The next Cattle on Feed is Friday, November 20. Precedent, not prediction: the last herd low was 88.2 million on January 1, 2014 (ERS). Ground beef peaked at $4.24 in January and February 2015, then fell to about $3.55 by 2017, roughly 16 percent (our arithmetic), as the herd grew to 94.7 million by 2019. USDA’s baseline has beef cows rising from about 27.7 million to 29.8 million by 2033, still under 31.6 million in 2019.

Reaction. CattleFax’s Patrick Linnell said fed supplies are tight and the report is friendly to prices (Drovers). Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel called the recent market drop a correction and said the September retail dip is not a major trend shift. Kansas State’s Tonsor says demand explains about 87 percent of the 2024 to 2025 retail rise and supply 13 percent, and the 300,000 ton import quota equals about 3 percent of U.S. beef demand (DTN, August 21). The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said the import plan would throw cold water on herd expansion. Bill Bullard of R-CALF USA says past import increases did not lower consumer prices and blames packer concentration. Secretary Brooke Rollins says strict safeguards protect American livestock. President Trump said in August the plan would cut ground beef prices.

The relief most people missed. The southern border is reopening to Mexican cattle in phases: Douglas, Arizona on August 24; Santa Teresa, New Mexico on September 24; Columbus, New Mexico today, October 26; and Nogales, Arizona targeted for November 30, if conditions allow (APHIS). Columbus may handle about 750 head a day, an early industry projection from one source. The catch: two new screwworm cases in Grant County, New Mexico, and the first U.S. wildlife case, an elk in Pecos County, Texas. On imports, a February 6, 2026 proclamation added 80,000 metric tons of Argentine lean trimmings to the existing 20,000, in four quarterly tranches; the fourth opened October 1. An August 21 plan opened a 300,000 ton duty free lean beef quota for 90 days from September 1. The catch: it is trimmings, mostly ground beef, and Linnell doubted much could arrive in 90 days.

What to do

Ranchers with drought losses: call your county FSA office about the Livestock Forage Program (form CCC-853), the Livestock Indemnity Program and ELAP. A third party summary says notice of loss and application are due March 1 after the loss year, so confirm with FSA. Hotline: 1-877-508-8364.
Everyone: save the screwworm reporting numbers. Texas state vet line: 1-800-550-8242. Elsewhere, call your veterinarian. Wildlife: 866-487-3297. Email: screwworm@usda.gov.
Mark Friday, November 20 for the next Cattle on Feed.
Shoppers: ground beef at $6.79 is cheaper per pound than the $8.84 all fresh average, and the quota beef is lean trimmings, so ground beef is where any relief would show first.

Is there a food recall this week? Smoked sprats with a botulism risk

On October 23, 2026, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advised people not to eat, sell or serve all lots of cold smoked sprats (small herring-like fish) from D&M Smoked Fish Inc., doing business as Haifa Smoked Fish, Jamaica, Queens, New York. The label reads “302M, LOT# 261, C/Smoked Holland Sprats.” Boxes went, labeled or not, to restaurants, seafood counters and wholesalers in Connecticut, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania. FDA says it was made without required controls against Clostridium botulinum, the germ behind botulism, and can look and smell normal. FDA asked for a recall and the firm declined, so this is an advisory. No illnesses reported. Also: WinCo hoagie rolls, 16 oz, undeclared sesame, UPC 2-70552-00649-2, best by 9/10/2026 to 11/3/2026, in CA, ID, MT, NV, OR, UT, WA (1-800-824-1706). Fortuna ZestiGreens broccoli sprouting seeds, 8 and 16 oz, possible Salmonella; no UPC or date on file.

What to do: If unsure of the source, throw smoked fish out and sanitize what it touched. Blurred vision, slurred speech or trouble swallowing or breathing is an emergency. FDA: 1-888-463-6332.

Sources: FDA, Oct 23, 2026, https://www.fda.gov/food/alerts-advisories-safety-information/fda-advises-not-eat-sell-or-serve-cold-smoked-sprats-sold-haifa-smoked-fish-inc ; FDA, Oct 22, 2026, https://www.fda.gov/safety/recalls-market-withdrawals-safety-alerts/winco-foods-llc-issues-allergy-alert-undeclared-sesame-hoagie-rolls ; FDA enforcement report, Oct 24, 2026.

Why are sweet potatoes this price before Thanksgiving?

USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reports free on board (FOB) prices, meaning at the packing shed door, for US No. 1 orange sweet potatoes (Oct 20, 2026):

OriginPer 40 lb cartonPer lbEastern North Carolinamostly $20 to $2250 to 55 centsMississippimostly $22 to $2455 to 60 centsLouisiana$23.50 to $2459 to 60 centsCalifornia (Atwater)mostly $40 to $40.35$1.00 to $1.01

California is a different pack. North Carolina grows over 60 percent of the U.S. crop (NC Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, via FreshPlaza); in 2024 the state harvested 86,500 acres at about 16,800 pounds an acre, a crop worth over $254.5 million from about 350 farms (NC Field and Family, citing NASS and the NC Sweetpotato Commission). At retail, the Oct 23 average ad price was $1.21 a pound across 2,037 ads, against $1.32 last week and $1.10 a year ago, up about 10 percent. That leaves 66 to 71 cents between shed and ad (our arithmetic). Curing takes about 85 F and 85 to 95 percent humidity for 5 to 7 days, then storage at 55 to 65 F (NC State Extension).

What to do: Buy now while ads are still running. Store at 55 to 65 F, never in the refrigerator, and use within two weeks. Growers: grading and curing are the margin, since No. 2s bring $10 to $11.

Sources: AMS Shipping Point Trends, Oct 20, 2026, https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvwtrds.pdf ; FreshPlaza, Apr 22, 2025, https://www.freshplaza.com/north-america/article/9725195/tariffs-threaten-north-carolina-sweet-potato-exports/ ; NC Field and Family, Aug 15, 2025, https://ncfieldfamily.org/farm/facts-stats/farm-facts-sweetpotatoes/ ; AMS Retail Report, Oct 23, 2026, https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvwretail.pdf ; NC State Extension, https://burke.ces.ncsu.edu/harvesting-sweet-potatoes/ .

What fruit and vegetables are in season now in late October?

USDA’s retail report for October 23, 2026 counts advertisements (ads), not stores:

Tangerines and mandarins, 3 pound bag: $4.78 across 7,612 ads, against $4.71 last week and $4.58 last year. Satsumas, an early mandarin, ripen on the Gulf Coast: Armstrong Early through October, Brown’s Select to early November, Owari early to mid November (LSU AgCenter).
Carrots, 1 pound bag: $1.01 across 208 ads, against 98 cents last week and 94 cents last year. The 2 pound bag is $1.87.
Bosc pears: $1.75 a pound across 3,442 ads, against $1.79 last week and $1.54 a year ago, up 14 percent. Oregon and Washington grow 88 percent of U.S. fresh pears (Fruit Growers News).

What to do: Buy the 3 pound mandarin bag, then roast carrots and Bosc together. Cut carrot tops off right away; topped carrots keep 4 to 5 months at 32 F (University of Maryland Extension). Ripen pears at 60 to 65 F for one to three weeks, away from apples, onions and potatoes (Nebraska Extension).

Sources: AMS Retail Report, Oct 23, 2026, https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvwretail.pdf ; Maryland Extension, https://extension.umd.edu/resource/growing-carrots-home-garden ; Nebraska Extension, https://lancaster.unl.edu/harvesting-and-storing-pears/ ; Fruit Growers News, Dec 2, 2025, https://fruitgrowersnews.com/news/pear-harvest-2025-oregon-washington/ .

Can you grow pecans in your yard?

A mature pecan tree makes about 40 to 50 pounds of nuts a year (University of Arizona), with good crops by year 9 or 10. Rutgers says 8 to 10 years to bear and calls pecans borderline in New Jersey. Trees reach 70 to 100 feet (UF/IFAS), so start 40 by 40 feet apart, thinning to as wide as 80 by 80 (UGA, Oklahoma State). Use deep, well drained soil with 30 to 36 inches of topsoil, pH 6.0 to 7.0. Mature Southwest trees use 150 to 250 gallons a day at peak (NMSU). Zones 5B to 9A. Plant two cultivars, a Type I (sheds pollen first) and a Type II (receptive first): Pawnee with Kanza in the north; Elliott, Sumner, Excel and Lakota resist scab in the humid Southeast. Dry nuts to about 4 percent kernel moisture. Value, our arithmetic: 40 to 50 pounds at the 2024 USDA grower price of $1.77 a pound is about $71 to $89 a tree a year, in shell, before costs.

What to do: Soil test and lime now; bare-root trees go in from December to March in the South (UGA), container trees from now through spring. We design backyard orchards nationwide and install in Southern New Jersey: https://www.curatednature.co/backyard-fruit-profits

Sources: Arizona AZ1400, https://extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1400.pdf ; UGA B1314, https://extension.uga.edu/publications/detail.html?number=B1314&title=establishing-a-pecan-orchard ; Rutgers, Feb 2014, https://njaes.rutgers.edu/fs1225/ ; NMSU, https://pubs.nmsu.edu/_h/H620/index.html ; UF/IFAS, https://gardeningsolutions.ifas.ufl.edu/plants/trees-and-shrubs/trees/pecan/ .

How do new farmers find land in New Jersey?

John J. Hauser, 74, farms the home farm off Route 9 in Old Bridge Township, Middlesex County. At the end of 2023 he signed a long term lease on 400 more acres, fixed up old barns and a farmhouse over the 2024 to 2025 winter, and is bringing in his son John Michael and nephews John Francis and Eddie. They grow seven kinds of fruit, including pumpkins, apples and nectarines. They sell at the Keyport, Highlands and Red Bank farmers markets, and plan pick-your-own strawberries in spring 2027 and a farm stand on Route 34 at Cottrell Road. Apple trees need four to five years to reach harvest. This is a single source, The New Jersey Farmer (Oct 1, 2026). Why it matters: leasing is common. USDA’s Economic Research Service says about 39 percent of U.S. farmland is rented, based on its 2014 TOTAL survey, and the Census of Agriculture has kept that share between 38 and 43 percent since 1969, so a lease like this one is a normal way for a farm to grow and for the next generation to get started.

What to do: New Jersey’s Farm Link program at the State Agriculture Development Committee runs NJ Land Link, njlandlink.org, a free listing service matching landowners and farmers. Call 609-984-2504 or email sadc@ag.state.nj.us. Nationally, American Farmland Trust’s Farm Link Finder lists programs by state at farmlandinfo.org.

Sources: The New Jersey Farmer, Richard Skelly, Oct 1, 2026, https://americanfarm.com/articles/newjerseyfarmer/hauser-takes-steps-to-assure-next-generation-will-have-role-with-farmland/ ; NJ SADC Farm Link, https://www.nj.gov/agriculture/sadc/farmlink/index.html ; USDA ERS Farmland Ownership and Tenure, https://ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/land-use-land-value-tenure/farmland-ownership-and-tenure ; American Farmland Trust Farm Link Finder, https://farmlandinfo.org/?p=36883 .

From the farm: what is Angelo doing today?

[ANGELO: two or three sentences on what you are doing on the farm today and why]

Want to turn your lawn into a fruit planting?

Stop mowing grass. Start growing fruit. Curated Nature designs, installs and can maintain backyard orchards, vineyards, berry plantings and gardens. Remote design plans are offered to landowners nationwide, and full installation is in Southern New Jersey. Start with a free site visit if you are local, or ask about a design only plan: https://www.curatednature.co/backyard-fruit-profits

Prefer to listen? The Morning Harvest: Farm and Food News is on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

beef pricescattle on feedfeedlot placementsground beefmexican cattle importsscrewwormsweet potatoespecans

Angelo Grinceri https://www.Angleswellness.com