The Morning Harvest: Farm and Food News, No. 023, Saturday, October 31, 2026
Today in 30 seconds
The Colorado River supports more than 40 million people and 5.5 million acres of farmland, and new federal operating rules for it took effect October 1, 2026.
The Lower Basin states lose 1.25 million acre-feet of river water in 2027 (an acre-foot is 325,851 gallons, roughly what two to three households use in a year, per the Water Education Foundation), and Lake Mead read 1,038.51 feet on October 29.
A spring runoff forecast at 17 percent of average, after 25 years of drought, is the backdrop for the new rules.
Lettuce is pricey this week because of a seasonal supply gap, and no source yet ties the river cuts to vegetable prices.
Landowners anywhere should know their water rights and their well before they plant, and several EQIP cutoffs fall in November.
In New Jersey, the Drought Monitor shows no moderate drought or worse on October 27, but Atlantic County farmers have a USDA loan window open until May 10, 2027.
Buy local: pasture-raised beef and eggs, pastured chicken, and our own blackberries at our farm stand in Hammonton, NJ. Free pickup by appointment only. See the price list: www.curatednature.co/farm-stand
What is the Colorado River system, and what changed on October 1, 2026?
Every number in this story is measured in acre-feet, so here is the size of one before anything else. An acre-foot is the water it takes to cover one acre of land one foot deep. An acre is 43,560 square feet, about the size of an American football field without the end zones. Fill that field a foot deep and you have 43,560 cubic feet of water, which works out to about 325,851 gallons, roughly what two to three households use in a year. The Lower Basin’s 2027 cut is 1.25 million of those.
The Colorado River system is the chain of dams, lakes, and canals that serves seven states, 30 Tribal Nations, and two Mexican states. The 1922 Compact split the river into an Upper Basin (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming) and a Lower Basin (Arizona, California, and Nevada), each able to use 7.5 million acre-feet a year, divided at Lee Ferry, Arizona. A 1944 treaty commits 1.5 million acre-feet a year to Mexico.
Glen Canyon Dam holds Lake Powell, which first filled in 1963. Hoover Dam holds Lake Mead and was finished in the mid 1930s. The Bureau of Reclamation, part of the Interior Department, runs the dams. The 2007 Interim Guidelines that governed them expired September 30, 2026.
On August 21, 2026, Interior signed a Record of Decision and the 2027 and 2028 Operating Guidelines. Operations under them began October 1. The framework runs through 2036, with new guidelines expected in two-year steps.
What to do: Read Reclamation's fact sheet on its "Future Colorado River Operations: Decision Documents" page. It is the plainest entry point to the new rules.
Sources: Reclamation, Future Colorado River Operations: Decision Documents, updated Sept. 1, 2026; Reclamation news release 5392, Aug. 21, 2026; Reclamation, Law of the River, undated; Congressional Research Service R45546, Nov. 19, 2025; Record of Decision, Aug. 2026; Water Education Foundation, Acre-foot, undated
How big are the Colorado River cuts, and how low is Lake Mead?
Farmland: the river sustains 5.5 million acres of farmland and serves more than 40 million people (Reclamation, Aug. 21, 2026).
The 2027 cut: 1.25 million acre-feet off the Lower Basin, below its normal 7.5 million.
The split: if the Lower Basin states carry out their proposed sharing agreement, Arizona gives up 760,000 acre-feet, California 440,000, and Nevada 50,000. That agreement is still being finalized.
Mexico: separately cuts 250,000 acre-feet in each of 2027 and 2028 (International Boundary and Water Commission Minute 334, Sept. 2, 2026).
Lake Mead: Reclamation's preliminary daily reading was 1,038.51 feet on Thursday, October 29, lower than the 1,040.5 feet the press reported as the August record.
Lake Powell: 22 percent full on September 30, at 3,518.08 feet.
These cuts cover 2027 and 2028 only.
What to do: Watch Lake Mead's elevation. Reclamation posts daily readings and a 24-Month Study around the 15th of each month. The levels that matter under the new rules are 1,025, 1,010, 1,000, and 950 feet. At 950, Hoover Dam stops making power.
Sources: Reclamation news release 5392, Aug. 21, 2026; Reclamation Lower Colorado daily levels, Oct. 29, 2026; Reclamation, Glen Canyon Dam page, Sept. 30, 2026; IBWC, U.S. and Mexico Colorado River agreement, Sept. 9, 2026; Western Water, Lake Mead record low, Aug. 7, 2026; Arizona Department of Water Resources statement, Oct. 16, 2026, via Maven's Notebook
Why are the Colorado River cuts happening now?
The river has been asked for more than it delivers. Natural flow averaged about 14.6 million acre-feet a year from 1906 to 2024, and about 12.4 million from 2000 to 2024. The 1922 Compact assumed about 16.4 million. Reclamation counts 25 years of drought.
Then 2026 got worse. Reclamation's July 15 study forecast April to July inflow to Lake Powell at 1.08 million acre-feet, just 17 percent of average. On April 17 it cut Powell's planned release to Lake Mead from 7.48 to 6.0 million acre-feet.
The seven states missed Interior's deadlines for a consensus plan, the latest on February 14, 2026, so Interior moved ahead without full agreement. The Final EIS came July 31, and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum signed the decision August 21. Positions differ. Upper Basin states say they already restrict use, and the Lower Basin wants shared sacrifice. Nevada sued on August 24, and Arizona moved to join on October 16, press reports say.
What to do: Mark April 2027, when Reclamation sets Lake Powell's release for the year, expected at 6 to 7 million acre-feet. Also note the Colorado River Water Users Association conference, December 9 to 11 in Las Vegas.
Sources: Colorado Politics, Feb. 15, 2026; Congressional Research Service IN11982, Aug. 3, 2026; Reclamation news release 5283, Feb. 14, 2026; Reclamation 24-Month Study, July 15, 2026; Reclamation news release 5326, Apr. 17, 2026; Interior news release, Aug. 21, 2026; Colorado Politics, Nevada lawsuit, Aug. 24, 2026; Deseret News, Arizona joins lawsuit, Oct. 16, 2026; Colorado River Water Users Association, 2026 conference
What do the Colorado River cuts mean for lettuce and winter vegetable prices?
Winter salad comes from the desert. In peak December weeks, Yuma leafy greens can be 80 to 95 percent of U.S. weekly shipments, the University of Arizona says. Western Arizona supplies 70 to 90 percent of iceberg in most winter weeks and about 80 percent of romaine at peak.
Prices are high now. On October 27, USDA reported Salinas-Watsonville iceberg mostly at $66.75 to $69.75 per 24-count carton, romaine at $69.55 to $72.90 per 24-count carton, and broccoli at $13.65 to $16.75 per 14-count carton. Those are wholesale shipping point prices, the first link in the chain before a store sets its own.
The honest caveat: no source I found ties the river cuts to vegetable prices so far. Yuma holds senior rights and has had no cuts, according to Arizona State's Sarah Porter (AZFamily) and Arizona's water director Tom Buschatzke (Cronkite News). The high prices look seasonal. Salinas supply is "very light," and Western Arizona's first price report is due the week of November 1. What deeper cuts would do is unquantified.
What to do: Wait two or three weeks on head lettuce if you can, and buy broccoli now, which USDA has at $13.65 to $16.75 per 14-count carton. No report promises a price drop.
Sources: University of Arizona WRRC, Yuma factsheet, Jan. 2024; University of Arizona Extension az2064, 2023; USDA AMS National Shipping Point Trends, Oct. 27, 2026; AZFamily, Yuma farmers shielded from cuts, Sept. 3, 2026; Cronkite News, Sept. 10, 2026
What do the Colorado River cuts mean if you own land?
In the West, prior appropriation means first in time, first in right: senior users keep their water in a shortage. In the East, riparian rights belong to owners next to a stream or lake who make reasonable use, and most riparian states now require permits.
Reclamation's fixed rates for leaving water in Lake Mead were $330, $365, and $400 per acre-foot for one, two, and three year agreements. Imperial Irrigation District's program paid $300 per acre-foot, the Desert Review reported, and conserved 222,384 acre-feet in 2025 on more than 150,500 acres, mostly on forage crops. Irrigated cropland still gained value in 2026: Arizona $8,400 per acre, California $21,500.
What to do:
West: ask your irrigation district for your 2027 allocation and your priority date. NRCS EQIP batching cutoffs fall in November: Arizona Nov. 6, Maryland and Oregon Nov. 13, Colorado Nov. 20. New Jersey and New York have passed; applications are often accepted year round.
East and Midwest: know your well's yield and your state's registration threshold (New Jersey: 100,000 gallons a day), and test irrigation water quality before you plant.
Curated Nature's site visits include soil testing, and its designs include drip irrigation and wells, with remote design nationwide.
Sources: National Agricultural Law Center, Water Law overview, undated; Reclamation news release 4353, Oct. 12, 2022; IID Deficit Irrigation Program release, Jan. 2026; Desert Review, IID rate, May 26, 2025; USDA NASS Land Values 2026 Summary, July 31, 2026; NRCS application cutoff dates, read Oct. 31, 2026; NJDEP form AGC-001, rev. Mar. 2025; Texas A&M AgriLife, Four Tests for a New Vineyard Site
Is New Jersey in a drought, and what help is there for Garden State farmers?
The answer is both yes and no. The U.S. Drought Monitor map valid October 27 shows 0 percent of New Jersey in moderate drought or worse and 28.26 percent abnormally dry. A year earlier, 78.68 percent of the state was in drought or abnormally dry. The state lifted its drought warning at the start of October, according to reports of the DEP's announcement, though the southern coast stays on watch.
USDA's drought designation of September 22 still stands. Atlantic County and seven other South Jersey counties are primary disaster areas, with drought counted "from April 28, 2026 on going." Designations lag conditions and set loan eligibility.
What to do: Atlantic County growers with drought losses can file a notice of loss at the FSA Vineland Service Center. The emergency loan deadline is May 10, 2027. Outside New Jersey, call your county FSA office, and check the U.S. Drought Monitor, updated every Thursday.
Sources: U.S. Drought Monitor, New Jersey, Oct. 29, 2026; USDA FSA, New Jersey drought designation, Sept. 22, 2026; The New Jersey Girl, drought warning lifted, Oct. 2, 2026; USDA FSA, New Jersey state office
From the farm
Today we are making Laurelette’s Delicious Blackberry Tea & Laurelette’s Blackberry Jam out of a commercial kitchen, ALL DAY! It’s a lot of work but we love it.
What should I watch next on the Colorado River?
Several dates matter. Reclamation's 24-Month Studies usually appear around the middle of each month, and the April 2027 study sets Lake Powell's release for the year. The agreement with Mexico, Minute 334, runs through December 31, 2028. The Colorado River Water Users Association meets December 9 to 11 in Las Vegas, where states often speak publicly.
The October study already puts Lake Mead in a shortage condition for 2027, with the Lower Basin cut of 1.25 million acre-feet. The big decision comes in April 2027, when Reclamation sets Powell's release at 6 to 7 million acre-feet. Court motions in Nevada's lawsuit are pending. The process for the 2029 and 2030 guidelines has no published schedule yet.
What to do: Bookmark Reclamation's 24-Month Study page and check it each month.
Sources: Reclamation 24-Month Study, Oct. 15, 2026; Interior news release, Aug. 21, 2026; Record of Decision, Aug. 2026; Colorado River Water Users Association, 2026 conference
The daily news is back on Monday.
Own land? Stop mowing grass. Start growing fruit.
If you own land and want it producing, Curated Nature can help. We offer design and consulting nationwide, including remote plans with variety lists, layouts, and step-by-step planting. Installs and ongoing management are local to Southern New Jersey. Every project starts with a site visit that includes soil testing, and our designs include drip irrigation and wells where the site needs them. Learn more at curatednature.co/backyard-fruit-profits.
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