The Morning Harvest: Farm and Food News, Ep. 32 (No. 032), Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2026. Data dates: USDA WASDE and NASS Crop Production, Nov. 10, 2026; USDA AMS retail ad report, Nov. 6, 2026; FDA recall notice, Nov. 10, 2026; USDA shipping point review, Oct. 23, 2026.
Today in 30 seconds
Corn: USDA cut the 2026 corn yield to 179.6 bushels an acre and the carryout to 1.758 billion bushels, and the ARC and PLC sign up closes Dec. 11.
Recall: Family Farmstead Dairy raw cheddar, 8 ounce packages with a best by date of 10/16/27 or earlier, may carry Listeria and was sold in 12 states including New Jersey.
Farm threat watch: spotted lanternfly is now known in 186 Massachusetts communities, so check firewood and outdoor items for egg masses this winter.
Avocados: Michoacan growers stopped picking Oct. 23 over prices near their cost, and one importer saw cartons jump from $21 to $23 a carton to $40 to $45 a carton in about a week.
In season: navel oranges are about 26% cheaper in ads than a year ago, and Honeycrisp apples are in an off year.
Could you grow this: test your soil for blueberries now, because sulfur takes months to work before spring planting.
Garden State: Abma's Farm in Hillsborough won a $100,000 agritourism grant, and farms asked for about 7 times the money available.
Why did USDA cut the 2026 corn yield on November 10?
What the report said. USDA's monthly supply and demand report, called WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), came out Tuesday, Nov. 10, at noon Eastern time, alongside the Crop Production report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). USDA put the 2026 corn yield at 179.6 bushels an acre, down 1.6 from October's 181.2. Production fell 141 million bushels to 15.893 billion. The bigger headline was the carryout, which is the corn left when the crop year ends: USDA cut it 91 million bushels to 1.758 billion, from 1.849 billion in October. Traders had guessed a yield near 180.5 and a carryout near 1.826 billion, the averages DTN and Dow Jones reported, so the carryout landed about 68 million bushels under the average guess. USDA also set its season average farm price, the average price farmers get across the marketing year, at $4.60, down from $4.70. December corn futures, which are contracts to buy or sell grain at a set price later, closed about a dime higher at roughly $4.49.
The backdrop. A yield of 179.6 is a cut from a very high bar. Last year's crop made 186.5 bushels an acre and 16.964 billion bushels on 98.7 million planted acres. This year farmers planted 96.8 million acres, down 1.9 million, and harvested 88.5 million, down 2.4 million. The yield is 6.9 bushels below last year, yet at 15.9 billion bushels it is still the second largest corn crop on record, behind 2025, according to NASS's Anthony Prillaman as reported by Agri-Pulse. A big cushion from old corn helps explain why: the year began with 2.095 billion bushels in storage, against 1.551 billion a year earlier. Stocks to use, which is the carryout as a share of a year's use, came in at 10.8% in November, compared with 11.3% in October and 9.7% in September. New Jersey grew 10.626 million bushels of corn in 2025, worth $50.5 million at $4.75 a bushel.
Why the crop came in lower. Three things pulled the number down. First, yields slipped in the eastern Corn Belt. AgWeb reported Illinois at 200 bushels, down 8, Indiana at 195, down 5, Missouri at 176, down 5, and Nebraska at 184, down 4, while Minnesota rose 9 to 204 and Iowa held at 219. Analyst Matt Bennett of AgMarket pointed to a wet June that washed nitrogen out of saturated Illinois fields. Second, there were fewer acres, 96.8 million against 98.7 million. Third, demand softened: USDA cut corn exports 25 million bushels to 3.275 billion, compared with 3.429 billion in the 2025/26 crop year. Costs also moved against farmers: Farm Bureau Market Intel reported on June 18 that USDA raised its 2026 corn fuel, lube and electricity cost estimates by 34% or more and its fertilizer cost estimates by 11% or more.
What it is worth on the farm. The report moves futures first, then USDA's farm price, then farm revenue, and then decisions on rent, seed and fertilizer. Multiplying production by price gives about $75.4 billion in October (16.034 billion bushels at $4.70) and about $73.1 billion now (15.893 billion at $4.60), roughly $2.25 billion less, though that is a rough season average. Picture a 1,000 acre farm at the national average yield: 179.6 bushels at $4.60 is about $826 an acre, or about $826,000 gross, and every 10 cents of price moves that by about $18,000. The Farm Bureau estimated in July that 2026 corn would lose $131 an acre without aid, using earlier prices. The University of Illinois farmdoc daily team, in September, put a central Illinois corn return at $59 an acre after cash rent, but that used $4.95 corn, well above today's $4.60. For shoppers, the link reached today is futures and the farm gate, not the grocery aisle. USDA's Economic Research Service forecasts food at home prices up 2.3% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, and its outlook page does not tie that to corn.
How the report works. WASDE is produced monthly by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board with analysts from key USDA agencies, and it covers supply and use for wheat, rice, corn and other coarse grains, oilseeds and cotton. NASS publishes Crop Production the same day, and its corn yield feeds the WASDE. That matters because of September: NASS said it used incorrect acreage weights when combining irrigated and nonirrigated field observations in Kansas and Nebraska, and on Oct. 23 it corrected the national yield from 178.5 to 178.8. USDA Under Secretary Scott Hutchins told Reuters on Nov. 6 that the department would add an AI tool as an additional validation layer and run the November report through it. We found no report on what that check showed on Nov. 10. Trust is the open question. Matt Frostic, president of the National Corn Growers Association, called the September error unacceptable last month and said NASS errors cost growers billions in market value. An Ag View Solutions survey of about 1,200 farmers, taken Oct. 25 to 28, found roughly three quarters have little or no confidence in USDA reports.
What is not settled yet. The final yield report arrives Jan. 12, 2027, and the market is split on which way it goes. Pro Farmer expects a lower yield in January but says the cut needed would be unprecedented, and its own estimate is 173.2, while a StoneX survey had 183.14, so USDA's 179.6 sits between them. History is a guide, not a forecast: the September correction moved the national yield only 0.3 bushel, and in October 2008 USDA cut planted corn about 1 million acres and soybeans about 1.1 million after data discrepancies with the Farm Service Agency, according to DTN. Arlan Suderman of StoneX said the market had braced for a bigger crop and that the balance sheet is adequate but without much margin for error. Doug Tenney of Leist Mercantile said a yield below 180 is a bullish feature, while Bennett called Iowa's 219 a little rich.
The deadline most people miss. Enrollment for the 2026 farm safety net programs ARC and PLC closes Friday, Dec. 11, 2026, at the local Farm Service Agency (FSA) office. ARC, Agriculture Risk Coverage, pays when county revenue falls short, and PLC, Price Loss Coverage, pays when the national marketing year price falls below a set reference price. The catch is that a farm that skips the 2026 election gets no 2026 payments, even though its 2025 election carries over, and landowners need a share interest in the crop to take part. The numbers make the choice live: the University of Wisconsin Extension lists the 2026 effective reference price for corn at $4.42 and the ARC price trigger at $4.53, and USDA's farm price estimate is now $4.60, 18 cents above $4.42. Wheat is closer to the line, since USDA's $6.20 estimate sits below the $6.35 effective reference price we covered in our Nov. 2 post on the wheat price slide and the safety net. USDA updates its prices Dec. 10, one day before the deadline. The 2027 enrollment window runs Nov. 2, 2026 to Mar. 15, 2027. For the lead up to this report, see our Nov. 9 preview of the USDA corn report.
What to do.
Call your local FSA office and make the 2026 ARC or PLC election before Dec. 11. Landowners need a share interest in the crop.
Check your base acres, the acres the programs pay on, by viewing your Base Allocation Notification through your Login.gov account or by asking the FSA office.
Run the University of Wisconsin Extension ARC and PLC decision tools with the Nov. 10 prices (corn $4.60, soybeans $12.10, wheat $6.20), and remember the next USDA price update is Dec. 10.
Keep a copy of your signed election. That is our own common sense advice, not a rule from a source.
Shoppers: this report moves futures and farm prices first, not grocery shelves, so no need to change your list because of it.
Sources: USDA WASDE (Nov. 10), DTN (Nov. 10), Agri-Pulse (Nov. 10), AgWeb (Nov. 10), RFD-TV (Nov. 10), Pro Farmer (Nov. 10), NASS notice (Oct. 24), Farm Policy News (Nov. 9), HPJ (Oct. 26), DTN Washington Insider (Oct. 26), OCJ (Nov. 10), McKeany-Flavell (Nov. 10), Ag Optimus (Nov. 10), Teucrium (Nov. 10), Farm Bureau Market Intel (June 18), USDA FSA (Nov. 11), University of Wisconsin Extension (Oct. 16), USDA ERS (Oct. 23), Farm Bureau Market Intel (July 16), farmdoc daily (Sept. 1), NASS New Jersey overview (Nov. 11).
Is your cheddar part of the Family Farmstead raw cheddar recall?
The FDA posted a notice on Nov. 10 that Family Farmstead Dairy of Worcester, New York, is recalling its Raw Mild Cheddar and Raw Sharp Cheddar because of possible Listeria monocytogenes, a bacterium that can cause a serious infection. The notice mentions no illnesses. Listeria is most serious for pregnant women, older adults and people with weak immune systems. The recall covers 8 ounce plastic wrapped packages, all lot codes, with a best by date of 10/16/27 or earlier. The notice lists no UPC codes, so go by the date. The cheese was sold at retailers, not named in the notice, in 12 states: NY, NJ, VT, NH, MA, PA, RI, CT, DE, VA, WV and TN. It follows the company's Oct. 15 recall of certain raw cheddar for possible E. coli. What to do. Check your fridge for 8 ounce Family Farmstead cheddar. If you have it, do not eat it: return it to where you bought it or call the company at 607.397.4044, Monday to Friday, 8 to 5, or email customerservice@familyfarmsteaddairy.com. If you cannot read the date, treat the cheese as included.
Source: FDA recall notice (Nov. 10).
Where is the spotted lanternfly spreading this fall? (Farm threat watch)
The spotted lanternfly, an invasive insect that feeds on more than 100 plant species, keeps moving. Massachusetts told its Nov. 4 quarterly meeting that 186 communities have known infestations, 78 of them new this year, which is more than half the state's cities and towns. New communities per year were 4 in 2021, 12 in 2022, 43 in 2023 and 65 in 2025. New Hampshire confirmed its first field detection in Rockingham County, and Michigan confirmed the insect on Sept. 28 in Berrien County, a major grape area. Grapevines suffer most, with lower sugar, delayed ripening and a smaller crop the next year. The insect hitchhikes on vehicles and outdoor items, and eggs laid now survive typical winters. What to do. Check firewood, patio furniture, stone walls, trailers and vehicles for grayish brown egg masses about as thick as two stacked quarters. Scrape them off with a credit card into a bag with rubbing alcohol, and report new finds to your state agriculture department or Extension. Grape growers should scout vineyard edges and tree of heaven, an invasive tree the insect favors.
Sources: Greenfield Recorder (Nov. 9), UNH Extension (Sept. 1), Michigan EGLE (Sept. 28), USDA APHIS (page updated Aug. 26, 2025).
Why did avocado prices jump after Mexico stopped picking?
Growers in Michoacan, which supplies about 75% of Mexico's avocado crop, stopped harvesting Oct. 23. They were being paid 13 to 20 pesos a kilogram, near their cost of about 14, and wanted 35 to 45 pesos, about $1.86 to $2.39. Exports restarted Nov. 5 after a price deal. The stoppage hit a thin cushion: about 56 to 58 million pounds sat in US storage against roughly 50 million pounds of weekly demand, about one week of cover. FreshPlaza reported on Nov. 3 that one importer saw cartons go from $21 to $23 a carton to $40 to $45 a carton in about a week, with the carton size not stated. USDA's shipping point review of Oct. 23, the last before the stoppage, had Hass from Mexico at $22.25 to $28.25 for a 48 count, two layer carton. Retail ads have not caught up: USDA's Nov. 6 report shows Hass 4 count bags at $3.45, against $4.08 last week and $3.54 a year ago. What to do. Shoppers: buy for this week rather than stocking up, since avocados do not keep, and know that loose avocado ads fell from 9,290 to 3,522, so deals may thin. Growers and landowners: know your cost per pound before you plant.
Sources: Rio Times (about Nov. 4), FreshPlaza (Nov. 5), FreshPlaza (Nov. 3), Global-Agriculture.com (Nov. 4), USDA AMS shipping point review (Oct. 23), USDA AMS retail report (Nov. 6).
What is in season now: navel oranges and Honeycrisp apples
USDA's Nov. 6 retail report, which counts advertisements, shows a 4 pound bag of navels at $3.21, against $4.31 a year ago, about 26% lower, and $1.38 a pound against $1.56 last week. California is the main source, and the state's first forecast calls for 84.0 million cartons of navels, up 4 million from last year's estimate. Citrus does not get sweeter after picking, so buy for flavor, not color; whole citrus keeps about 4 to 6 weeks in the fridge. Apples are tighter. The US crop is near 263 million bushels, down 7%, and Honeycrisp, about 27 million bushels, is in an off year. Ads show Honeycrisp at $2.06 a pound, against $1.95 last week and $2.13 a year ago. Fuji ads are $1.82 a pound, up 33% from $1.37 a year ago, and Gala ads are $1.52, down from $1.92 last week. Apples keep best near 32 degrees F and about 95% humidity, which at home means a bag in the crisper, away from fruit that gives off ripening gas. Growing apples: dwarf trees fruit in 2 to 3 years, standard trees up to 8, and you need two varieties for pollination (a crabapple works). What to do. Buy navels by the bag while the ad price is a quarter under last year, and keep apples cold in a bag.
Sources: USDA AMS retail report (Nov. 6), FreshPlaza (Sept. 15), UC IPM (undated), Perishable News (Aug. 27), Fresh Fruit Portal (Aug. 25), UMass Extension apples (Aug. 22, 2019), University of Minnesota Extension (undated).
Could you grow blueberries? Start with a soil test now
Blueberries need acidic soil, roughly a pH of 4.5 to 5, and the sulfur used to lower pH takes months to work, so a November soil test sets up spring planting. Extension guides say to apply elemental sulfur per your test 3 to 6 months before planting, then retest, and to skip lime. A mature highbush plant gives roughly 5 to 10 pounds a year, says Iowa State Extension. Ohio State says a bare root plant usually gives its first harvest in the second or third season, and you should not let it fruit the first two years. Plant two or more varieties for bigger berries, give them full sun, and mulch 3 to 4 inches deep with wood chips, bark or pine needles. What to do. Get a soil test this month. If your pH is above about 5, apply sulfur per the test, prepare beds, and order plants for late winter or spring. If you own land and want help picking the site and the varieties, that is what I do: stop mowing grass, start growing fruit, through Curated Nature's backyard orchard, vineyard and berry planting service.
Sources: Iowa State Extension (Oct. 21, 2026), Ohio State Extension (May 15, 2026), NC State Extension (Feb. 12, 2024), University of Georgia (modified May 2026), UNH Extension (Oct. 24, 2025), Rutgers NJAES (Jan. 2005).
What is the Abma's Farm agritourism grant in New Jersey?
State leaders toured Abma's Farm in Hillsborough, Somerset County, on Monday, Nov. 9, to show what the New Jersey Agritourism Fund pays for. The farm received $100,000 to build a 2,000 square foot open air educational pavilion for farm tours, planting and harvest activities, cooking demonstrations, and lessons on nutrition and sustainable agriculture. It was one of 71 recipients in 16 counties, awarded May 1, 2026. More than 440 applications came in from all 21 counties, asking for over $36 million against about $5 million awarded, an average award near $70,000. That is about 7 dollars requested for every dollar available, which shows how many farms want to add farm visits as income. What to do. New Jersey farmers: watch the state agriculture department's agritourism grants page (nj.gov/agriculture/financial-services/grants/agritourism.shtml) for the next round and have your project written up. Elsewhere, ask your state agriculture department and tourism office whether a similar grant exists, and ask Extension about zoning and liability before building anything public.
Source: NJ Department of Agriculture (Nov. 9).
Own land? Stop mowing grass and start growing fruit
If you own land and would rather grow something than mow it, Curated Nature's backyard orchard, vineyard and berry installation service covers design, planting and optional maintenance, including soil testing, variety selection, irrigation, trellising, pruning and a pest and disease plan. Installs and management are local to Southern New Jersey. Remote consulting and design only help is available to landowners anywhere in the country. The service page notes that berries usually produce in the second year, grapes in the third, and tree fruit in years three to five. Start with the page, and ask what fits your land.
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