USDA puts $573 million into eight fertilizer plants: what it means for fertilizer prices
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Top story: USDA proposed about $573 million toward eight fertilizer projects, but farmers get no direct payment and anhydrous ammonia is still $987 a ton.
Recall check: Natural Grocers is recalling bulk organic mung beans in 22 states for possible glass, and Food Safety News reports a broccoli sprouting seed recall for Salmonella.
Why it costs what it costs: Idaho Burbank russets are $11 to $13 per 50 pound carton at the shipping point, while a 10 pound bag is $4.76 at retail.
In season: cranberries (12 ounce bag $2.23), leeks ($15.45 to $20.95 per 12 bunch carton) and red radishes ($1.68 a bunch).
Could you grow this: hazelnuts take 3 to 4 years to bear, and Rutgers says October and November is bare-root planting time in the Northeast.
Garden State minute: two New Jersey deadlines for small farms, both about November 6.
Why is fertilizer so expensive, and what does USDA’s $573 million fix?
What happened. On Thursday, October 22, Vice President J.D. Vance spoke at a rally at the D&N Event Center in North Platte, Nebraska, and announced the first eight selections under FIELDS, USDA’s Fertilizer Investment and Expansion for Long-Term Domestic Supply program. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is quoted in the USDA release. USDA says it proposes about $573 million in cost-share grants (the government pays part of a project and the company puts up the rest) toward more than $1.34 billion in total investment. The projects would add about 1.08 million tons a year of new or expanded fertilizer capacity at 22 sites in 16 states. The eight selections:
TalusAg (Texas-based): 20 modular ammonia units at 11 sites in Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Tennessee, Nebraska, Illinois and South Dakota. About $99.8 million of $270.2 million. About 130,000 tons a year of anhydrous ammonia.
Peace Valley, Bartow, Florida: about $19.9 million of $50.6 million. About 250,000 tons a year of nitrogen, phosphate, potash and sulfur products.
PCI Nitrogen, Pasadena, Texas, and St. Helens, Oregon: about $100 million of $200 million. About 148,280 tons a year of ammonium sulfate and urea (a modernization).
Intrepid Potash, near Carlsbad, New Mexico: about $139 million of $265 million. About 220,000 tons a year of sulfate of potash from a new facility. The largest award.
AdvanSix, Hopewell, Virginia: about $47.4 million of $98.1 million. About 84,000 tons a year of anhydrous ammonia (an expansion).
SUL4R-PLUS Illinois, Marissa, Illinois: about $34.9 million of $69.7 million. About 100,000 tons a year of sulfur fertilizer.
True Organic Products, Helm, California; Boardman, Oregon; and Arlington, Arizona: about $15.3 million of $30.6 million. About 142,805 tons a year made from agricultural byproducts.
Agriculture Project Holdco, Lewis, Kansas, and Fair Oaks, Indiana: about $116.9 million of $360 million. About 4,100 tons a year of liquid ammonium nitrate made from dairy manure.
Nebraska note: Vance said “$1.3 billion of investment” was coming “right here in Nebraska,” according to KNOP and KLIN. The USDA release treats $1.34 billion as the eight-project national total, and it lists Nebraska as one of seven TalusAg states.
Why fertilizer costs this much. DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends, published October 21 (prices from the second week of October), has anhydrous ammonia at $987 a ton, up 18 percent in a year. Urea is $674 (up 13 percent), DAP is $937, and potash is $503 (up 3 percent). The USDA AMS Illinois Production Cost Report for the week ending October 16 has anhydrous at $947.50, urea at $770 and potash at $515. DTN had anhydrous at $1,114 in mid April (farmdoc daily), and farmdoc’s chart shows Illinois anhydrous above $1,600 in 2022 (a chart read, approximate). I could not confirm a New Jersey fertilizer price. USDA and trade sources point to four causes. First, the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption since February 28, 2026. The Persian Gulf supplied about 17 percent of U.S. urea and about 20 percent of U.S. DAP and MAP in 2023 data (farmdoc), and sulfur, a fertilizer ingredient, is about $1,300 a ton against a normal $100 to $200 (Farm Progress, August 4). Second, Russia’s share of U.S. nitrogen imports rose from 13 percent to 25 percent, and China restricted exports (Farm Progress). Third, concentration: USDA says four firms hold about 77 percent of North American nitrogen capacity, two hold over 90 percent of phosphate, and two hold about 90 percent of potash. Fourth, imports: Canada supplies most U.S. potash. Natural gas is not the driver now. EIA’s October outlook puts the 2026 Henry Hub average (the benchmark natural gas price) at $3.48 per million BTU (Rigzone, October 21).
What it costs on the farm. Farmdoc daily (University of Illinois, May 5, 2026) found that fertilizer for central Illinois corn rose from $190 to $217 an acre with anhydrous after the conflict began, and soybeans from $85 to $87. Farmdoc’s April piece put the nitrogen increase at about $30 to $55 an acre, roughly 7 to 13 bushels of corn at about $4.30 cash. Our arithmetic, not farmdoc’s: $217 minus $190 is $27 an acre, so 1,000 acres is about $27,000 more. The American Farm Bureau Federation projects 2027 corn total cost at $952 an acre (Market Intel, June 18). An April AFBF survey found about 70 percent of farmers could not afford all the fertilizer they needed for spring (secondhand, via farmdoc and Fertilizer Daily). I could not find a per-acre fertilizer cost for fruit and vegetable growers.
How the money works. FIELDS is run by USDA Rural Development’s Rural Business-Cooperative Service under section 5(b) of the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act. Announced July 1, applications ran July 1 to August 17, 2026 on Grants.gov (closed). Awards run from $15 million to $150 million, with a 50 percent match required (FY26 funding notice, section 3.2). They are grants under financial assistance agreements. Eligible applicants are domestic, independently owned producers that are not among the top market share holders: for-profits, nonprofits, co-ops, tribes and governments. Farmers get no direct payment, and the money goes to manufacturers. USDA’s own estimate is that once the plants operate, nitrogen prices fall 4.4 percent and potash prices 5.3 percent, while nitrogen output rises 3.7 percent and potash output nearly 40 percent.
What USDA has not said. The selections are “proposed.” I found no obligation date, no signed agreements, no timeline in the release and no published method for the price estimate. Iowa Capital Dispatch and Morning Ag Clips report groundbreaking within weeks and completion in 2027 or 2028 (secondhand). Scale check, our arithmetic: 1.08 million tons against the 19 to 20 million metric tons U.S. farmers use a year (USDA, via DTN) is roughly 5 to 6 percent, and USDA itself says up to 5 percent. The tons are mixed products, not tons of nutrient. Precedent: the 2022 Fertilizer Production Expansion Program (FPEP) was $900 million across 121 projects, and Secretary Rollins said May 19, 2026 that only eight were completed (Farm Policy News). AgWeb reports the extra $73 million above the program’s $500 million came from money pulled back from that earlier program.
Reaction. John Newton of the American Farm Bureau Federation told Brownfield, “It’s not a couple million dollar fix.” Corey Rosenbusch, CEO of The Fertilizer Institute, backs permitting reform (DTN). Josh Linville of StoneX told AgWeb prices stay elevated into spring 2027. On the critical side, Precious McKesson, executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party, called the plan “too little, too late for farmers” in a party statement (single source, partisan, campaign season). As of this morning I could not find an independent economist’s critique.
The other relief most people missed. Section 338 tariffs of up to 50 percent on about $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect August 19, 2026, but exempt potash, sulfur and other fertilizer (Fertilizer Daily). The catch: they apply even to goods that qualify under USMCA, and Canada retaliated, effective September 8, though potash is not on its list. Separately, USDA announced $8 billion in Harvest Fuel Relief on Monday, October 19: rates are due in November, and sign-up has not been announced (Capital Press, October 20). The Moroccan phosphate duty suspension, announced June 29, runs at least eight months (DTN).
What to do
Price fall and spring nitrogen now, and compare the DTN and USDA AMS Illinois numbers to your dealer’s quote.
Link Login.gov to your USDA account now so you are ready for Harvest Fuel Relief sign-up.
If you grow specialty crops, email HarvestFuel@usda.gov.
Soil test before you buy. A Rutgers or state Extension soil test shows what you actually need.
Keep fertilizer invoices and soil tests in one folder. Shoppers: this is supply investment, not a price cut at the store, and any effect is years out.
Sources: USDA release, Oct 22; USDA Rural Development FIELDS page and July 15 release; FY26 FIELDS funding notice (July 7); DTN, Oct 21, Oct 22 and June 30; USDA AMS Illinois report, week ending Oct 16; KNOP, Oct 23; KLIN, Nebraska.tv, Brownfield, Oct 22; AgWeb, Oct 21 and 22; Iowa Capital Dispatch, Oct 22; Morning Ag Clips, Oct 23; farmdoc daily, Mar, Apr and May 5; Farm Progress, Aug 4; Rigzone, Oct 21; AFBF Market Intel, June 18; Fertilizer Daily, Aug 6 and Sept 1; Capital Press, Oct 20; Farm Policy News, July; Texas Farm Bureau, May 26; Nebraska Democratic Party, Oct 22.
Is there a recall on mung beans or sprouting seed this week?
Natural Grocers (Vitamin Cottage Natural Food Markets, Lakewood, Colorado) is recalling Natural Grocers Brand Bulk Organic Mung Beans in 2 pound clear plastic bags, UPC 000080112600, after customer complaints of sharp glass fragments. Lot IDs, printed lower left on the label: 26-160, 26-173, 26-196, 26-224 and 26-258. They shipped from June 10, 2026 to stores in 22 states: AR, AZ, CO, IA, ID, KS, LA, MN, MO, MT, ND, NE, NM, NV, OK, OR, SD, TX, UT, WA, WI and WY. No injuries or illnesses have been reported. Notice date: October 22, 2026. Food Safety News (October 23) reports Wild West Seed, Albany, Oregon, recalled broccoli sprouting seed for Salmonella: Green Sprouting Calabrese lot 4105 and Waltham29 lot 4475, 50 pound bags, about 9,476 pounds. It is not on FDA’s site yet, and no illnesses were reported.
What to do. Check the lot ID on your bag. If it matches, stop using it, and discard it or return it for a refund or credit. Questions: 303-226-1434, Monday to Friday, 8 to 5 Mountain.
Sources: FDA recall notice, Oct 22; Food Safety News, Oct 23
Why are russet potatoes more expensive this fall?
Shipping point (FOB) is the packer’s price at the shed, before freight. USDA’s National FOB Review for October 22 has Idaho Upper Valley Russet Burbank at $11.00 to $13.00 per 50 pound carton for 100-count and $24.00 to $25.00 per carton for 40-count, market steady. At about $12 a carton, that is roughly 24 cents a pound (our arithmetic). USDA’s latest national retail report shows a 10 pound russet bag at $4.76 against $3.95 a year ago, and $1.20 a pound against $0.85. The report is dated Oct 16, but its printed ad window (Oct 10 to 22) does not line up, so treat it as the latest available. The reasons, per FreshPlaza: Idaho planted about 298,915 acres against 315,000, and production is down about 9 percent after two May frosts, summer heat and water curtailment. The gap to retail covers packing, freight, shrink and margin.
What to do. Buy smaller russets, since large 40-count cartons cost about double the 100s at the shed, and skip stocking up: FreshPlaza says carton prices may dip slightly before year end.
Sources: USDA National FOB Review, Oct 22; National Retail Report; FreshPlaza, Sept 10 and Oct 20
What produce is in season in late October: cranberries, leeks and radishes?
Cranberries are at peak. USDA forecasts 7.87 million barrels, up 5 percent, with about 96 percent going to processing. Wisconsin leads, then Massachusetts, New Jersey, Oregon and Washington. A 12 ounce retail bag averages $2.23 against $2.19 last year. Penn State Extension says good berries bounce and are firm, keep about 2 weeks in the fridge, and freeze up to 12 months. Leeks: Central Coast California 12-bunch cartons are $15.45 to $20.95 at the shipping point, steady (USDA, Oct 22). University of Minnesota Extension says look for a firm white shaft over 3 inches. They are an easy home crop at 120 to 150 days. Red radishes: a retail bunch is $1.68 against $0.86 last year, and 24-count bunched cartons are mostly $20.45 to $23.25 at the shipping point (USDA, Oct 22). They take 3 to 5 weeks from seed. USDA’s report listed no shipping point price for cranberries.
What to do. Freeze a bag of cranberries now. Plan leeks for next season.
Sources: USDA National Retail Report and FOB Review; Penn State Extension; UMN leeks; UMN radishes
Can you grow hazelnuts at home or on a small farm?
Oregon State’s home guide says a mature tree yields 15 to 20 pounds of dried nuts, with trees 15 to 20 feet apart. In Oregon commercial budgets (OSU AEB 0068), 108 trees an acre at 20 by 20 feet give a first commercial yield in year 3 and 3,200 pounds an acre at full production; the 10-year Oregon average is 2,511. Rutgers says bearing starts at 3 to 4 years and significant production at years 7 to 8, with pH 5.8 to 7.0 (6.5 ideal), deep well-drained soil, rows 18 to 20 feet apart, and zones 6 to 7. The Oregon figures are budget and average numbers, not a guarantee of what any planting will produce. Hazelnuts are wind-pollinated and need two compatible varieties. Eastern filbert blight is the key disease. Rutgers cultivars: Raritan, Monmouth, Hunterdon, Somerset. Oregon: Jefferson, Yamhill, Dorris. Upper Midwest hybrids reach zone 3. These sources cover the Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Northwest. In the South and California, check your Extension office.
What to do this month. Northeast: soil test and plant bare-root in October and November. Midwest: soil test, clear perennial weeds, order bare-root for spring. Pacific Northwest: order now.
Sources: Rutgers E368; OSU EC 819; OSU AEB 0068; Wisconsin Extension
What are the November deadlines for New Jersey farmers?
Two deadlines land around November 6. Rutgers Equipment Day, run by the RU Ready to Farm program for new and beginning farmers: Saturday, November 14, 2026, 10 am to 2 pm (registration 9:45), Hlubik Farms, 92 Chesterfield-Georgetown Road, Chesterfield, Burlington County. Free. RSVP by November 6 at go.rutgers.edu/6iqwqax4. Topics: BCS machines, small seeders and tractors, transplanters, plastic mulch layers, pesticide safety, soil testing, on-farm food safety, sourcing used equipment, and an optional orchard tour. Farm Credit East GenerationNext: $199 per person after the Young, Beginning, Small and Veteran discount (listed at $1,900). In person in Bridgeton, Cumberland County, on November 20, December 4 and December 18, plus 7 virtual sessions January 21 to March 4. Register at least two weeks before. The series also runs in Maine, New York and Vermont.
What to do. RSVP and register this week. Outside New Jersey, ask your county Extension office for similar days.
Sources: Rutgers Plant and Pest Advisory, Equipment Day, Oct 20; Farm Credit East, Oct 22
From the farm
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