The Morning Harvest: Farm and Food News, No. 030, Monday, November 9, 2026
Today in 30 seconds
Top story: USDA's Nov. 10 Crop Production and WASDE reports are the first to run through a new AI data check, and analysts expect the corn yield near 180.5 bu/acre, down from 181.2 in October.
Recall check: Brad's kale chips (2 oz and 3 oz bags) are recalled for possible thallium; check your pantry and discard any bag.
Why it costs what it costs: California strawberries jumped to $26.00 to $28.00 per flat after rain, but ads still average $2.79 a pound.
In season: Clementines ($4.46 for 3 lb), Bartlett pears ($1.67 a lb) and sweet potatoes ($1.31 a lb) are the November buys.
Could you grow this? American elderberry gives a light crop in year 2 and a full crop in years 3 to 4.
Garden State minute: New Jersey gained 60,928.9 base acres, and ARC/PLC enrollment for 2026 closes Dec. 11.
What will USDA's November corn report say on Tuesday, and why is the data in question?
What lands Tuesday. USDA releases the November Crop Production report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and the WASDE, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the Office of the Chief Economist, on Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026, at noon Eastern (11 a.m. Central). The time comes from the agsist.com USDA calendar and Pro Farmer. Crop Production is built from farmer questionnaires, objective yield field samples (ear counts and ear weights) and satellite data. WASDE then uses those yields to build balance sheets, which subtract total use from total supply to leave ending stocks. This is also the first release run through a new AI data check. Reuters reports USDA built the tool to check data before publication, and officials said it would have flagged the September error. Revisions are rare: DTN points to the October 2008 acreage correction as the main precedent, and NASS usually changes a number only when new data arrives.
Where the numbers stand. NASS's Oct. 9 Crop Production put corn at 181.2 bushels an acre (2025: 186.5) and production at 16.034 billion bushels (16,033,944 thousand), from 88.506 million harvested acres. Soybeans set records at 53.1 bushels an acre (2025: 53.0) and 4.562 billion bushels. In New Jersey, soybeans were harvested on 98,000 acres and yielded 42.0 bushels an acre (2025: 39.0), for 4.116 million bushels. NASS does not break out New Jersey corn. The Oct. 9 WASDE, as reported by DTN, put corn ending stocks at 1.849 billion bushels (September: 1.567 billion) and the season average farm price at $4.70. Soybean ending stocks were 315 million bushels at $12.00. The market price is different: December corn futures, the price a farmer can lock in today, closed Friday, Nov. 6, at $4.4150, the sixth straight weekly decline, according to Total Farm Marketing. USDA's $4.70 is a forecast for the whole marketing year, not a bid. After the Oct. 9 report, DTN says December corn fell more than 20 cents, so the gap between those two prices is what Tuesday can move.
Why the data is in question. The September Crop Production report had what NASS called a processing error involving incorrect acreage weights. It hit plant populations, ear counts and yield forecasts in Kansas and Nebraska, and in the 10-state averages. NASS announced the correction on Oct. 23: Kansas 119 bushels an acre, Nebraska 182, U.S. 178.8, per Brownfield. DTN's table implies the original U.S. yield was about 178.5, but USDA did not state that figure. NASS says the Oct. 9 forecasts were reviewed and validated and did not change. Four pressures sit behind the doubt. First, October's 181.2 beat the 177.6 analysts expected, according to DTN. Second, Pro Farmer counts 411 million bushels that USDA added to corn balance sheets in two moves: 177 million bushels to old crop on Sept. 30 and 234 million to new crop on Oct. 9. Third, fewer farmers respond: AgWeb reports 37.6% answered the March 2026 Prospective Plantings survey, the lowest on record, and the American Farm Bureau Federation says response to the annual crop production survey fell from 80 to 85% in the 1990s to 46% in 2024. Fourth, Reuters says thousands of USDA employees left after last year's downsizing, though Under Secretary Scott Hutchins denies a link to the error.
What one bushel is worth. The dollar figures below are our own arithmetic from NASS harvested acres and the Nov. 6 December futures close, not USDA numbers. Each 1 bushel an acre on 88.506 million harvested corn acres is about 88.5 million bushels. At $4.4150 a bushel, that is about $391 million. A cut of 0.9 bushels an acre, from 181.2 to 180.3 (the AgWeb average of analyst guesses), would be about 80 million bushels. For a hypothetical 1,000-acre corn farm, each bushel an acre is 1,000 bushels, about $4,415. University of Illinois farmdoc daily (Sept. 1, 2026 budget revision) says a 50 cent move in corn shifts returns by more than $100 an acre. It puts break-even for central Illinois high-productivity corn just under $5 a bushel and for soybeans at $11.10 to $11.28. Those returns used a $4.95 corn price assumption, so they are stale against $4.4150, and your own farm's break-even is the number that matters.
What nobody knows yet. Nobody knows whether USDA will cut or hold the corn yield. The Pro Farmer and Bloomberg average of analyst estimates is a corn yield of 180.6 bushels an acre, production of 15.979 billion bushels and corn ending stocks of 1,846.2 million. The AgWeb and Total Farm Marketing average is a corn yield of 180.3. StoneX is the outlier at 183.1. For soybeans, the average is a yield of 53.5 and ending stocks of 332.2 million bushels, with estimates running from 280 million to 404 million, the widest range of any line. Nobody knows yet whether the AI check changes any outcome. The best precedent is a miss in the other direction: the Jan. 12, 2026 report put 2025 corn production at 17.02 billion bushels, which beat the trade guess of 16.544 billion by 477 million bushels, per DTN. NASS's Oct. 9, 2026 report later lists 2025 production at 16.96 billion after revisions. That is a precedent, not a prediction.
Reaction. The National Corn Growers Association called the September error unacceptable and said it cost farmers "billions," according to DTN on Oct. 26. That dollar figure is the group's claim, not a USDA number. Dan Basse of AgResource told Brownfield the error had no market impact but "it takes the industry to point it out." Jim Gerlach of A/C Trading called the reports "erratic," per Reuters on Nov. 6. USDA's side: Hutchins says the errors were not tied to staffing, and Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board, called the September error "very isolated."
Two deadlines and the next dates. NASS's comment period on the Agricultural Prices survey closes Tuesday, Nov. 10, per the Sept. 11 Federal Register notice. Send comments to ombofficer@nass.usda.gov and include the survey name, Agricultural Prices, OMB 0535-0003. Separately, USDA's Risk Management Agency lists 2027 crop insurance sales closing dates of Nov. 20, Nov. 30, Dec. 1 and Jan. 31, depending on crop and county. Check yours on the Actuarial Information Browser "Dates" tab. After Tuesday, the next WASDE is Thursday, Dec. 10, 2026, then Jan. 12, 2027.
What to do
Before noon Eastern Tuesday, decide whether you will price more 2026 corn, and compare the report with your own break-even from a university budget such as farmdoc or your state Extension service.
After the release, check the corn yield against the roughly 180.5 analysts expect, and watch soybean ending stocks, where the guesses are widest.
Answer NASS surveys when they arrive, since response rates are part of this story.
If you want to weigh in on the Agricultural Prices survey, email ombofficer@nass.usda.gov by Tuesday with the survey name.
Ask your crop insurance agent for your crop's 2027 sales closing date and check it on the "Dates" tab.
Shoppers: this report moves grain, feed and ethanol markets, and nothing changes at the checkout tomorrow.
Sources:USDA NASS Crop Production, Oct. 9, DTN, Oct. 9, DTN, Oct. 26, Brownfield, Oct. 26, Reuters via The Star, Nov. 7, Total Farm Marketing, Nov. 6, Pro Farmer, Oct. 2026, Pro Farmer, Nov. 2026, AgWeb, Mar. 2026 survey, AFBF, Jul. 25, 2025, DTN, Jan. 12, farmdoc daily, Sept. 1, Federal Register, Sept. 11, agsist USDA calendar, accessed Nov. 9, USDA RMA, Oct. 22.
Which Brad's kale chips are recalled for thallium?
Snack Right Super Foods, Inc., doing business as Brad's Raw Chips of Coral Gables, FL, announced a recall on Nov. 2, 2026, and FDA posted it Nov. 3. The chips may contain thallium, a naturally occurring metal that kale takes up from soil. The company says it did not add it, and FDA told the firm it found thallium in tested products. About 25,000 bags (about 2,097 cases) shipped nationwide in October to December 2025. The notice reports no illnesses so far.
Crunchy Kale Original, 2 oz: lots 33525-1, 33525-2, 33525-3 (best by Feb. 1, 2027); 34525-1 (Feb. 11); 35125-2 (Feb. 17)
Crunchy Kale Cheeze It Up, 2 oz: lot 35025-3 (Feb. 16, 2027)
Crunchy Kale Radical Ranch, 2 oz: lot 29425-1 (Dec. 21, 2026)
Veggie Chips Kale, 3 oz: lots 33225-3 (Jan. 28, 2027); 33325-2 (Jan. 29); 33425-1 (Jan. 30); 33525-1 (Feb. 1)
What to do: Stop eating them and discard them; there are no refunds, so do not return them to a store. Questions: alexandra@thesnackright.com (M to F, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET) or FDA at 1-888-463-6332. See a doctor if you feel sick.
Sources: FDA recall notice, Nov. 3, 2026
Why are strawberry prices jumping after the California rain?
Rain disrupted harvests in California and Mexico and limited supply. USDA's Nov. 4, 2026 shipping point report has conventional strawberries from Santa Maria and Salinas-Watsonville at $26.00 to $28.00 per flat of 8 one-pound containers (organic $32 to $34). On Oct. 23, the same conventional flat was $18 to $22.
Per pound: $26 to $28 per flat is $3.25 to $3.50 a pound. The Oct. 23 range was $2.25 to $2.75 a pound (our calculation).
Retail ads: the 1-lb package averaged $2.79 across 2,234 ads for Oct. 31 to Nov. 12, down from $3.30 (2,943 ads) last week. A year ago it was $4.39, but across only 305 ads.
Why the gap: ads are set ahead of time, so the shipping jump has not reached them yet.
Next: Mexico shipments should increase, and Florida starts the week of Nov. 15.
What to do: Ads under $3 a pound are a good buy this week. Freeze extras, because prices should firm as new ads replace old ones.
Sources: USDA AMS Specialty Crops Retail Report, Nov. 6, 2026; USDA AMS National FOB Review, Oct. 23, 2026; FreshPlaza on USDA's Nov. 4 update, Nov. 5, 2026
What fruit and vegetables are in season in November, and what do they cost?
USDA's weekly retail report for Nov. 6, 2026 (ads from Oct. 31 to Nov. 12) points to three good buys.
Clementines: 3-lb bag $4.46 across 544 ads, down from $4.97 last week and $5.34 a year ago. Mandarins are $4.37 and navels $4.89 for 3 lb. California hand harvest runs November to June.
Pears, per lb: Bartlett $1.67 across 4,692 ads (last week $1.86, last year $1.76), Bosc $1.86, D'Anjou $1.94. Oregon and Washington grow most of the fresh U.S. pear crop.
Sweet potatoes, per lb: $1.31 across 2,274 ads, up from $1.14 a year ago. North Carolina is the top grower.
What to do: Buy pears firm and ripen them on the counter. USA Pears says to check the neck: press near the stem, and if it gives, it's ripe. NC State says cured sweet potatoes taste sweeter. Store them at about 55 to 60 F, and do not refrigerate them raw. Want to grow them? Plant slips from April to June and harvest about 120 days later.
Sources: USDA AMS Specialty Crops Retail Report, Nov. 6, 2026; USA Pears, accessed Nov. 9; NC State Extension, 2017; UC Cooperative Extension, 1995
Can you grow elderberries at home? Yield, spacing and first harvest
Missouri and Rutgers Extension put a mature planting at 2 to 4 tons per acre, and Utah State says a home plant gives 2 to 3 pounds.
Timeline: remove flower heads in year 1, expect a light crop in year 2 and a full crop in years 3 to 4.
Spacing: plants about 4 feet apart (2 to 5 feet is the range), rows 10 to 12 feet apart.
Site: full sun, moist but well drained soil, pH 5.5 to 6.5. Wisconsin lists zones 3 to 9.
Top mistake: a single variety. Plant at least 2 different varieties near each other.
Safety: raw berries, leaves and stems are toxic. Cook the berries.
What to do: Rutgers allows spring or fall planting, while Missouri prefers dormant bare-root plants in early spring. This month, if your ground is not frozen and your climate is mild, you can plant dormant bare-root plants. Elsewhere, test your soil pH, kill perennial weeds, mark rows and order named varieties for spring. A handful of plants is plenty.
Sources: Missouri Extension AF1017, accessed Nov. 9; Rutgers NJAES FS1372, accessed Nov. 9; Utah State Extension, accessed Nov. 9; Wisconsin Elderberry Growers Guide, 2023
How much farm safety-net money is New Jersey getting, and what are base acres?
USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) said on Oct. 20, 2026 that about $6.28 million in ARC, PLC and CRP payments is going to New Jersey farmers and landowners. Nationwide, that is $13.8 billion for ARC and PLC and $1.8 billion for CRP.
Base acres: New Jersey gained 60,928.9 new base acres, from the first nationwide base-acre increase in about two decades. Base acres are the acres a farm's payments are tied to.
CRP: 1,879 acres are in active New Jersey contracts, and 737 of them are Grassland CRP.
Payment limit: $160,000 for 2025.
Deadlines: 2026 ARC/PLC enrollment closes Dec. 11, 2026. 2027 enrollment runs Nov. 2, 2026 to Mar. 15, 2027.
What to do: Call your county FSA office, which you can find with the FSA office locator. The same programs and dates apply in every state, and a small farm anywhere may now have more eligible acres than before.
Sources: USDA FSA New Jersey release, Oct. 20, 2026; FSA office locator
Want help planting an orchard, vineyard or berry patch?
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