Why Is Ground Beef $6.79 a Pound? USDA Reopens Columbus, New Mexico to Mexican Cattle
Today in 30 seconds
Top story: USDA will reopen Columbus, New Mexico to Mexican cattle on October 26, but economists expect no measurable effect on beef prices.
Recall check: No new notable recall surfaced since October 17, so this is a good week to check your fridge at 40 F or below.
Why it costs what it costs: California red seedless grapes sell for about $1.26 to $1.37 a pound at the shed ($23.95 to $25.95 a 19 pound box, our arithmetic) and $2.23 a pound in the ad.
In season: Beets, collards, and winter squash are arriving in volume, all near $1 a pound.
Could you grow this? A mature plum tree can bear 3 to 5 bushels, after a wait of 3 to 5 years.
Garden State minute: USDA says it is paying about $6.28 million to New Jersey farmers and landowners, and the 2026 enrollment deadline is December 11.
Why is ground beef $6.79 a pound, and will reopening the border to Mexican cattle help?
What happened. On Tuesday, October 20, 2026, USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) said it will reopen Columbus, New Mexico to Mexican cattle on Monday, October 26. It plans to reopen Nogales, Arizona on November 30, if conditions support safe trade and the inspection arrangements and infrastructure are in place. Horses and other equines resume by land at Santa Teresa, New Mexico on October 26, with inspection and treatment before export and a seven-day quarantine at a USDA-approved facility on the U.S. side. Columbus is the third port reopened since the border closed to Mexican cattle over New World screwworm: Douglas, Arizona reopened August 24 and Santa Teresa September 24. All Texas ports stay closed. USDA announced the plan in a post on X, which Reuters reported (we read Reuters, not the post itself). Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins visited the Columbus stockyard on Tuesday, according to the Santa Fe New Mexican. APHIS says the Mexican-side quarantine facilities "remain closed for now."
Why beef costs this much. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has ground beef (100 percent beef, U.S. city average) at $6.792 a pound in September 2026, up 7.4 percent from $6.323 in September 2025. August 2026 was $6.923, the highest month I can find in that data; the "record" label comes from an aggregator, beefpriceindex.com, not from BLS. Beef and veal prices overall rose 3.5 percent year over year in September (Meatingplace citing BLS, secondhand; we did not read the BLS release). USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts beef and veal prices up 9.4 percent for 2026, within an interval of 7.4 to 11.6 percent. The core cause is the herd. USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) counted 86.2 million cattle and calves on January 1, 2026, including 27.6 million beef cows, down 1 percent (January 30, 2026). "Lowest in 75 years" is how AP and Drovers described that count; NASS itself did not use the phrase. Texas A&M's Anderson told AP that drought and years of culling (selling off cows) shrank the herd, and Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel says rebuilding takes years because a cow has one calf a year. For New Jersey, I couldn't confirm a current number; the 2022 Census of Agriculture counted 781 New Jersey farms with 9,085 beef cows.
Mexico and the screwworm:
Mexico normally supplies about 1.25 million head a year, worth about $1.3 billion in 2024 (Agri-Pulse, single source). DTN counted 1,195,702 head through November 21, 2024.
Oklahoma State's Peel puts Mexican cattle at about 3 percent of the U.S. calf crop (via Drovers).
The border closed because of New World screwworm, a fly whose larvae feed on living flesh through wounds. The first U.S. case since 1966 was found June 3, 2026 in Zavala County, Texas (AP). Reuters reported on October 20 that there have been 56 confirmed U.S. cases since June, with 5 active. The two newest are in Grant County, New Mexico, next to Luna County, where Columbus sits (Beef Magazine and Searchlight New Mexico, October 15).
Timeline: imports were suspended in November 2024, reopened February 1, 2025, and closed again May 11, 2025 (ERS).
Sterile flies: APHIS says its sterile fly plant in Metapa, Chiapas, which opened June 27, 2026 with $21 million from USDA, is built for 100 million flies a week. A planned plant at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas is projected at 300 million a week, with up to $750 million of an $850 million plan (TSCRA, secondhand).
What you pay versus what the rancher gets. Uncooked beef steaks averaged $12.690 a pound in September 2026, up 3.5 percent from $12.262 (BLS). Yet USDA's 5-area weekly report has live steers at $224.19 per hundredweight (cwt, 100 pounds of live animal) for the week ending October 18, 2026, versus $239.82 a year ago. So the farm price is down while the store price is up. I did not find a USDA beef price spread for this week, so I am not assigning the gap to packers, demand, or anything else. Per unit: ground beef is $6.792 minus $6.323, or about 47 cents a pound more than a year ago. A family buying 2 pounds a week (104 pounds a year) pays about $49 more a year. That is our arithmetic, not a USDA figure. On the border side, the Santa Fe New Mexican (single source) reports Columbus handled about 1,800 head a day before the closure and expects about 1,000 a day after. Since August 24 through October 16, about 39,600 head have crossed: about 28,800 at Douglas and about 10,800 at Santa Teresa (Drovers citing USDA AMS, secondhand), against about 1.25 million in a normal year.
How the border protocol works. APHIS Veterinary Services runs the program with Mexico's SENASICA. Cattle must come from approved lower-risk areas of Sonora and Chihuahua. On the farm, tick treatment happens 7 to 14 days before APHIS inspection, and a screwworm exam and treatment happen 3 to 5 days before. At the border on the Mexican side, inspectors do a physical exam, a tick scratch test, a detector dog check, and a dip vat, and any animal with a wound is refused. If a case is confirmed, the lot is removed, the facility closes, and that facility faces a 90-day export ban (APHIS infographic). No import permit is needed for feeder cattle (APHIS Mexico page). On day one at Santa Teresa, 408 of 686 head cleared; the rest were rejected for unhealed castration sites, ticks, or lameness (Drovers).
What USDA has not said. USDA has not published daily head limits; reports for Columbus range from 750 to 1,000 a day and conflict. It has not given dates for any Texas port, said when Mexican-side quarantine facilities reopen, or spelled out the exact trigger for re-closing. The precedent is July 2025: Douglas reopened July 7 and about 900 head crossed, a new case was found July 8 in Veracruz about 370 miles from the border, and ports closed July 9 (Beef Magazine, secondhand). APHIS says ports may be paused if risk rises in Sonora or Chihuahua, so one case there could do it.
Reaction. No group had reacted to Tuesday's news when we recorded. All of the following predate October 20. Derrell Peel told AP and PBS in August, "I don't expect to see any measurable impact" on prices. Bill Bullard of R-CALF USA, a critic, called the plan "premature" on July 30 and wants the border closed until Mexico eradicates the pest. Colin Woodall of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association said on July 24 it will "help normalize business for cattle operations." Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller called it "the right move" but "not the finish line" on July 27, and he is pressing for Texas ports.
The other relief: 300,000 metric tons of trimmings. Proclamation 11059, signed August 26, 2026 and published in the Federal Register August 31, allows 300,000 more metric tons of lean beef trimmings in at the low in-quota tariff this year, in three 100,000 ton tranches. The third opens October 31 and runs until filled or November 30. The catch: USDA and the U.S. Trade Representative must check that the imports sell at least 25 percent below the market price for lean trimmings, and the President can cancel what remains. It covers trimmings for ground beef, not steaks, and it does nothing for feeder supply. Argentina separately got 80,000 more tons (Proclamation 11010, February 6, 2026).
What to do
Keep cattle, horses, goats, sheep, or dogs in the Southwest? Learn the sign, a wound that won't heal with larvae in it, and report a suspect animal to your state animal health official or APHIS. Read the APHIS stop-screwworm page.
Buy feeder cattle? Mexican cattle come only through Douglas, Santa Teresa, and from Monday, Columbus. Any animal with a wound is refused at the border. Follow USDA AMS's 5-area report for the farm price.
Lease pasture? Keep your lease and herd records current, because the border can close on one case, as it did in July 2025.
Shopping for ground beef? Don't expect the counter price to drop this fall. The trimmings quota can only touch ground beef, and economists expect no measurable effect from the reopening.
Sources: APHIS program update and Mexico import page (Oct 20), APHIS import protocol, APHIS sterile fly facilities (Jul 23), BLS average prices (Sept 2026), USDA AMS 5-area report (week ending Oct 18), NASS Cattle (Jan 30), ERS Food Price Outlook (Sept 25), Federal Register, Proclamation 11059 (Aug 31), Reuters and Santa Fe New Mexican (Oct 20), Drovers, Agri-Pulse, AP via PBS (Aug), R-CALF USA (Jul 30), NCBA via Oklahoma Farm Report (Jul 24), Sid Miller via Texas Border Business (Jul 27).
Is there a new food recall this week, and how cold should your fridge be?
I found no new notable recall posted October 17 through October 21 beyond ones already covered. The largest was Kayem Foods, about 1,584,361 pounds of ready-to-eat meat recalled October 17 for possible temperature abuse, covered Monday. The FSIS recall page would not load fully for us, so check it yourself. USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) says bacteria can double in as little as 20 minutes between 40 and 140 degrees Fahrenheit. Never leave food in that range more than 2 hours, or 1 hour when the air is above 90 F. FDA says keep the fridge at 40 F or below and the freezer at 0 F. After an outage, food is generally safe if it stayed at 40 F or below or was above 40 F for 2 hours or less. FDA's rule: "if in doubt, throw it out."
What to do. Put an appliance thermometer in your fridge and freezer this week and check it. Then look at fsis.usda.gov/recalls for the Kayem retail list before you cook what is in your freezer.
Sources: USDA FSIS, the Danger Zone, FDA, refrigerator thermometers, FDA recalls, FSIS recalls, Kayem recall via Food Safety News (Oct 17).
Why do California table grapes cost what they do at the store?
USDA's October 19 FOB Review has San Joaquin Valley red seedless grapes in 19 pound bags mostly at $23.95 to $25.95, and white seedless mostly at $27.95 to $30.95. FOB means free on board: the price at the packing shed, packed and cooled, before freight. Our arithmetic: about $1.26 to $1.37 a pound for red, $1.47 to $1.63 for white. USDA calls white "higher" and red about steady.
USDA's October 16 retail report has advertised red seedless at $2.23 a pound versus $2.58 last week, $2.13 a year ago. White seedless is $2.84 (4,410 ads) versus $2.47 last week, $2.44 a year ago. White ads fell from 8,745 to 4,410 as the price rose, consistent with the higher FOB price, not proof of cause. The gap is roughly 86 to 97 cents for red and $1.21 to $1.37 for white (our arithmetic; ads are promotional). It covers freight, repacking, shrink, and retail margin. ERS says the farm share of a basket of fresh fruit has run 32 to 39 percent since 2010.
What to do. Red seedless is the buy at $2.23 a pound. Wait on white. Growers: organic white seedless holds mostly $38.95 a 19 pound box.
Sources: USDA National FOB Review (Oct 19), USDA weekly retail report (Oct 16), ERS price spreads (Aug 12).
What produce is in season in late October?
Beets, collard greens, and winter squash are arriving in volume. USDA's October 16 retail report, per pound:
Beets: 99 cents (92 cents last week, 90 cents a year ago)
Collard greens: $1.03 ($1.13 last week; no year-ago figure printed)
Kabocha squash: $1.05 ($1.06 last week, 97 cents a year ago)
Spaghetti squash: $1.04 ($1.11 last week, $1.13 a year ago)
Beets come from California and Mexico through San Luis, Arizona (bunched 12s mostly $13.45 to $16.95, October 19), plus New Jersey and New York. Collards come from Lexington, South Carolina, plus New Jersey and Orange County, New York. Kabocha comes from New Jersey, New York, and Ontario. Utah State Extension says beets store at 32 F and high humidity for 2 to 4 months. Illinois Extension says frost improves collard flavor. A winter squash storage guide hosted by Oregon State's horticulture department (by Brent Loy) says kabocha needs 10 to 20 days at room temperature to sweeten, then store at 50 to 60 F.
What to do. Buy beets at 99 cents and spaghetti squash at $1.04. Plant collards next July for a frost-sweetened fall crop.
Sources: USDA weekly retail report (Oct 16), USDA National FOB Review and New York terminal report (Oct 19), Utah State Extension, Illinois Extension, Oregon State, winter squash storage.
Can you grow plums in your yard?
Yes, if you plan for the wait. Utah State Extension puts yield at 3 to 5 bushels per mature tree. Cornell Cooperative Extension's compact-planting guide says about 75 pounds per tree in a 10 by 15 foot planting (single source). Oregon State (EC 819, January 2025) says first harvest takes 3 to 5 years. Spacing runs 15 to 22 feet (Utah State 18 to 22; UNH 15 to 20). Use full sun and well-drained soil at pH 6.0 to 7.0 (UNH). Plant at least two varieties. Japanese plums need a Japanese or American pollinizer, and European pollen does not work on them; Methley is self-fruitful (NC State). Chill hours: European 700 to 1,100, Japanese 500 to 900 (Georgia Bulletin 1518); NC State says choose 750 or more. Hardiness: European zones 5 to 8, Japanese 5 to 9. Try Methley or Santa Rosa (Japanese), Stanley (European), or Superior (hybrid).
What to do. Soil test now: Rutgers FS797 says fall is best, 10 to 15 spots, 6 inches deep, mixed. Order bare-root trees early. Two trees of compatible types is the minimum. That site and variety matching is what we do: stop mowing grass, start growing fruit, at https://www.curatednature.co/backyard-fruit-profits.
Sources: Utah State Extension, Cornell Cooperative Extension, Oregon State EC 819, UGA Bulletin 1518, UNH Extension, NC State, Mississippi State, Rutgers FS797.
What is USDA paying New Jersey farmers and landowners, and what deadlines matter?
USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) said on October 20, 2026 it is paying about $6.28 million in farm safety net and conservation payments to New Jersey farmers, ranchers, and landowners. The release names State Executive Director Bob Andrzejczak and is our only source. The safety net part is ARC and PLC for the 2025 crop year: income supports on historic base acres for commodity crops. The conservation part is CRP, the Conservation Reserve Program, which pays rent for taking environmentally sensitive land out of production. New Jersey received 60,928.9 additional base acres for the 2026 crop year, and CRP covers 1,879 acres under active contracts. The release does not say which crops or counties were paid. Nationally, 2025 ARC and PLC payments total $13.8 billion and CRP $1.8 billion. Deadlines apply in every state: 2026 crop year ARC and PLC enrollment runs through December 11, 2026; 2027 enrollment runs November 2, 2026 through March 15, 2027.
What to do. If you own farmland with base acres or a CRP contract anywhere, call your county FSA office before December 11. The office locator is on fsa.usda.gov.
Source: USDA FSA news release (Oct 20).
Want to turn your yard into a producing orchard?
If you own land and want to stop mowing grass and start growing fruit, Curated Nature designs and installs backyard orchards, vineyards, berry plantings, and gardens, with optional maintenance and harvest support. Berries typically begin producing in their second year, grapes in their third, and tree fruit in years three to five. Full-service installs and management are local to Southern New Jersey; remote consulting and design-only help is offered nationwide. Quotes are custom. Start here: https://www.curatednature.co/backyard-fruit-profits
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