USDA Raises Corn Yield to 181.2 Bushels and Corn Prices Drop: What It Means
The Morning Harvest: Farm and Food News, No. 006, Monday, October 12, 2026
Today in 30 seconds
USDA raised the 2026 corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre on October 9, and December corn futures fell 20.5 cents.
Starfish Seafood Trio cold smoked fish is recalled in six states for possible Listeria.
Peruvian blueberries cost $40 to $42 per 12 pint flat at East Coast ports and $4.60 a pint at retail.
California grapes, persimmons, and Brussels sprouts are in season, with persimmons at $1.71 each.
A dwarf apple tree can yield 2 to 3 bushels and bear in 2 to 4 years.
Rutgers says a garlic and onion pest, allium leafminer, is active again in southern Pennsylvania.
Why did corn prices drop after the October USDA crop report?
On Friday, October 9, 2026, USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service released its October Crop Production report. It raised the national corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, up 2.7 from 178.5 in September. Traders surveyed before the report expected a cut to about 177.7.
Production: 16.034 billion bushels from 88.5 million harvested acres, up 234 million bushels from September. That is roughly 5 percent below the 2025 record and the second largest crop on record.
Ending stocks (the corn expected to be left over at the end of the marketing year): raised 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion.
Season average farm price: cut 10 cents to $4.70 a bushel.
Futures: December corn fell 20.5 cents to $4.7975 a bushel, an eight week low, after briefly trading down the daily limit.
Soybeans: a record yield of 53.1 bushels per acre and record production of 4.562 billion bushels.
The report was based on a survey of about 8,300 producers taken September 24 to October 5. States hit by summer heat and drought came in better than expected: Nebraska rose 11 bushels to 188, and Iowa held at 219. A bigger crop means more supply, and more supply pushes prices down. Corn mostly goes to animal feed and ethanol, so shoppers will not see a quick change, but lower feed costs can help meat, dairy, and egg producers. USDA's next update is November 10.
Sources: USDA NASS briefing, October 9, 2026; DTN; Farm Progress
What smoked fish is being recalled for Listeria?
Krasnyi Oktyabr Inc. of Brooklyn, New York, is recalling Starfish brand Seafood Trio, a pack of cold smoked salmon, halibut, and trout. FDA published the notice on October 9, 2026. The company is a wholesale distributor and did not make the product, which comes from Latvia.
Package: 8 oz (227 g), vacuum sealed plastic
Lot number: D139149161-153
Expiration date: 12/01/2027
Distributed in: New York, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and South Carolina. The notice does not name retailers.
Reason: possible contamination with Listeria monocytogenes, a bacteria that can cause serious illness
Illnesses: none reported to date
The problem was identified by the New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets. Cold smoked fish is not cooked before eating, which is why a Listeria finding on this kind of product leads to a recall. If you have this product, do not eat it. Return it to the place of purchase for a full refund. Questions go to the company at (718) 858-6720, Monday through Friday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern.
Source: FDA recall notice, October 9, 2026
Why are blueberries $4.60 a pint right now?
In October the fresh blueberries arriving at East Coast ports come from Peru. USDA's National FOB Review dated October 9, 2026 reports these prices at the Philadelphia and New York City area ports. FOB means the price at the shipping point, before trucking and store costs.
Conventional: $36.00 to $46.00 per flat of 12 one pint cups, mostly $40.00 to $42.00
Organic: $58.00 to $68.00 per flat, mostly $64.00 to $66.00
Demand fairly good, market steady
At the store, USDA's National Retail Report dated October 9 shows a national average advertised price of $4.60 a pint, which is $55.20 per 12 pint flat. That is down from $4.85 a pint the week before ($58.20 per flat) and up from $4.00 a year ago ($48.00 per flat). The gap of about $14 a flat between port and shelf covers trucking, distribution, losses, and the store's margin.
Supply is the thing to watch. Peru's grower group Proarandanos cut its 2026/27 export forecast to about 366,000 tons, 4.4 percent below last season's 383,000 tons, even with about 15 percent more land in production. The group points to El Nino weather. For the next eight weeks it forecasts 108,000 tons, 31 percent less than the same weeks last season.
Sources: USDA National FOB Review, October 9, 2026; USDA National Retail Report, October 9, 2026; FreshPlaza, October 6, 2026
What fruits and vegetables are in season in mid October?
Prices are national average advertised prices from USDA's National Retail Report dated October 9, 2026.
California grapes. Red seedless: $2.58 a pound, up from $2.49 last week and $2.16 a year ago. At the shipping point in the San Joaquin Valley, red seedless is mostly $23.95 to $25.95 per 19 pound box. USDA's Economic Research Service forecasts the California table grape crop at 1.15 million tons, up 10 percent from 2025. Tip: look at the stems. A UC Davis postharvest engineer notes that stems lose moisture before the fruit, so green, flexible stems signal good handling.
Persimmons. $1.71 each, down from $2.92 last week and $2.99 a year ago. Fuyu is squat with a flat bottom and can be eaten firm like an apple. Hachiya is pointed and must be very soft before eating, according to UC Agriculture and Natural Resources.
Brussels sprouts. $2.66 per 1 pound bag, down from $3.55 last week. Purdue Extension says to choose firm, bright green sprouts without loose leaves and store them unwashed in the refrigerator for about a week.
Grapes are the one on this list most often grown at home.
Sources: USDA National Retail Report; USDA National FOB Review; FreshPlaza on the USDA ERS forecast, September 25, 2026; UC Davis; UC ANR; Purdue Extension FoodLink
Can you grow apple trees in your backyard?
In most of the country, yes, if you match the variety to your winters. The figures below come from University of Minnesota Extension and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension.
Yield: 2 to 3 bushels per dwarf tree, up to 10 bushels per standard (full size) tree
Years to first fruit: 2 to 4 for dwarf trees, up to 8 or more for standard trees
Spacing: 6 to 8 feet for dwarf, 12 to 15 feet for semi-dwarf, 20 to 25 feet for standard
Pollination: two different varieties within 100 feet (one can be a crabapple)
Site: at least 8 hours of direct sun, soil pH 6 to 7, and no standing water
Regional fit comes down to chill hours, the hours of winter cold a tree needs to bloom normally. Texas A&M lists Dorsett Golden at 350 hours, Anna at 400, and Gala and Fuji at 600, and advises choosing varieties within 150 hours of your local average. Too low and the tree blooms early into frost. Too high and bloom is weak and drawn out.
What to do this month: take a soil test, pick the sunniest well drained spot, and choose two compatible varieties so you are ready for spring planting. This is the kind of plan we design for landowners. See how at Curated Nature.
Sources: University of Minnesota Extension; Texas A&M AgriLife Extension
Garden State minute: what is allium leafminer, and is it in New Jersey?
On October 9, 2026, Rutgers Cooperative Extension published its last regular Vegetable IPM Update of the season, written by vegetable IPM coordinators Amanda Quadrel (northern New Jersey) and Maria Cramer (southern New Jersey). IPM stands for integrated pest management: scouting first and treating only when needed.
Pumpkins: harvest is underway with few pest problems. Melon aphids are at low levels in most plantings.
Sweet corn: corn earworm numbers are falling statewide with cooler nights.
Allium leafminer: found in southern Pennsylvania in late September, which signals the fall flight has begun. It had not been detected in the New Jersey program at the time of the update.
Allium leafminer is a small gray fly with a yellow head. Females leave neat rows of white dots on leaves, and the larvae tunnel down into leaves and bulbs. It attacks chives, scallions, garlic, onions, and leeks, with leeks and scallions hit hardest. It has two generations a year, one in early spring and one in fall. Floating row covers, put on before the flies arrive and kept on until about the first hard frost, keep it off the crop. Where sprays are used, Rutgers says to start 2 to 3 weeks after first detection. Anyone growing garlic or onions in the East should learn to spot it.
Source: Rutgers Plant and Pest Advisory, October 9, 2026
From the farm
Here at the farm, we are waiting for the weather to pass so we can get back to building our well pump structure and get back to discing our rows!
Turn your yard into a producing orchard
Stop mowing grass. Start growing fruit. If you own land and want an orchard, vineyard, or berry planting, we can help. Design and remote consulting are available to landowners anywhere in the country, and full installation and ongoing management are offered in Southern New Jersey. Berries typically begin producing in their second year, grapes in their third, and tree fruit in years three to five.
Start here: https://www.curatednature.co/backyard-fruit-profits
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