Why Beef Prices Are at Record Highs, and How Long They Will Stay There
The Morning Harvest, No. 005, Sunday, October 11, 2026 (Weekend Deep Dive)
Today in 30 seconds
Ground beef averaged a record $6.92 per pound in August 2026, up 79% since December 2019.
The U.S. cattle herd started 2026 at 86.2 million head, the lowest in 75 years.
The 2026 calf crop, 32.5 million head, is the smallest on record.
A heifer kept for breeding today is about three years from adding beef to the store.
About 51 cents of each retail Choice beef dollar is the value of the animal.
New Jersey has 24,000 cattle, and most of its cattle farms have fewer than ten head.
How high are beef prices right now?
BLS average price, per poundDec. 2019Aug. 2025Aug. 2026Ground beef, 100%$3.86$6.32$6.92Choice boneless sirloin steaknot checked$14.32$14.36
Ground beef’s August price is the highest in the BLS series. It is up 9.6% in a year and 79% since December 2019.
Sirloin set its record in April 2026 at $14.73.
Beef and veal prices were 5.9% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier. Poultry was up 0.5%, and eggs were down 23.0%.
USDA forecasts beef and veal prices up 9.4% for all of 2026, with a range of 7.4% to 11.6%.
Sources: BLS ground beef series via FRED, BLS sirloin series via FRED, USDA Food Price Outlook, September 25, 2026, farmdoc daily, October 5, 2026
Why is the U.S. cattle herd so small?
The causes, according to the Kansas City Fed and economists quoted by the AP:
Drought: abnormal drought in cattle regions in 2012, 2022, 2023, and 2026 pushed ranchers to sell cows.
Cost: replacement animals cost 100% more than their 20-year average.
Screwworm: the U.S. closed the border to Mexican cattle in May 2025. Mexico has traditionally supplied about 1.1 million head, roughly 3% of U.S. supply.
Long memory: Texas A&M’s David Anderson points to roughly 18 to 20 years of low cattle prices before this run.
Demand: U.S. beef consumption in 2026 is about 8% above its 20-year average.
Sources: USDA NASS, July 24, 2026, American Farm Bureau, July 27, 2026, DTN, January 30, 2026, Kansas City Fed, August 5, 2026, AP via PBS NewsHour, August 24, 2026
How long does it take to raise beef, and to rebuild a herd?
A heifer kept at weaning needs about 16 months to have her first calf, and that calf needs 18 to 22 months to reach market. That is roughly three years. The Kansas City Fed finds that inventories have historically started growing two to three years after ranchers begin keeping heifers. Keeping heifers also removes them from the current beef supply.
Sources: Cattlemen’s Beef Board and NCBA fact sheet, Oklahoma State University gestation table, University of Wisconsin Extension
Where does the retail beef dollar go?
Source: USDA ERS meat price spreads
Will beef prices come down soon?
Imports: in August the administration announced that up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef could enter tariff-free over 90 days.
Border: Mexican cattle imports resumed August 24, 2026 at Douglas, Arizona, with more ports to follow in phases.
Economists: Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel told the AP, “I don’t expect to see any measurable impact on cattle prices or beef prices soon.”
Supply: the American Farm Bureau expects feeder cattle supplies to stay tight through 2027.
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Sources: AP via PBS NewsHour, American Farm Bureau
Garden State minute: how many cattle does New Jersey have?
January 1, 2026: 24,000 cattle and calves, unchanged from 2025, including 12,000 cows.
2025 calf crop: 9,000 head.
2022 Census of Agriculture: 1,040 farms with cattle and 25,552 head. Of those farms, 632 had 1 to 9 head, about 61%.
Sales: 731 New Jersey farms sold 9,700 cattle and calves in 2022.
Sources: USDA NASS Cattle report, January 2026, 2022 Census of Agriculture, New Jersey
What to watch next
This month: the September inflation report.
Cattle futures: on October 9, December live cattle closed at $227.05 per hundredweight and November feeder cattle at $341.95.
Late January 2027: USDA’s January 1 cattle inventory.
Source: Brownfield Ag News, October 9, 2026
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