Diesel and your dinner: why diesel is $6.33 a gallon, what it costs the farm, and what it means at the grocery store
The Morning Harvest: Farm and Food News, No. 010, Saturday, October 17, 2026. Weekend deep dive. By Angelo J. Grinceri III, regenerative blackberry farmer, Hammonton, New Jersey. Data in this issue: AAA fuel averages as of Friday, October 16, 2026; EIA weekly diesel survey for October 12; USDA National FOB Review dated October 15; USDA National Retail Report dated October 9; BLS Consumer Price Index for September, released October 14.
Today in 30 seconds
Diesel averaged $6.33 a gallon on Friday per AAA, up 73 percent from $3.65 a year ago, and $8.09 in California per the EIA; the record is $6.53, set September 21.
Four causes stack up: crude near $90 since the Iran strikes of February 28, Russia’s extended diesel export ban, fall refinery maintenance that collides with heating oil season, and distance from the Gulf Coast refineries that make about half of U.S. diesel.
The American Farm Bureau figures harvest diesel costs about $8 more per acre for corn, $14 for rice, and $58 for apples this year; a California Farm Bureau survey released October 15 found 40 percent of farms cutting field work.
The farm got 11.8 cents of the 2024 food dollar; most of the diesel cost sits in the other 88 cents, which is why blackberries are $1.00 a cup at the border and $2.36 on the shelf.
Washington has a dyed diesel order and a Russian fuel deal; farm groups want the 24.4 cent federal diesel tax suspended. Traders were not convinced: wholesale diesel jumped 20 cents on Tuesday.
Where it goes next: the EIA sees diesel above $6 in October and about $4.50 on average in 2027; futures imply roughly $6 at the pump into January. Angelo’s read: $6 to $6.50 through Thanksgiving, under $6 around the new year, low $5s by summer, no $4 diesel before 2028.
Friday’s checks: a raw cheddar E. coli recall in New York and New Jersey, kiwifruit, grapefruit, and acorn squash in season, how to grow figs, and five rainy Sundays on New Jersey’s pumpkin farms.
How high is diesel right now, and how does it compare to gasoline?
AAA’s national average for diesel was $6.326 a gallon on Friday, October 16, against $6.279 a week earlier, $6.310 a month earlier, and $3.649 a year ago, a 73 percent increase. The record is $6.53, set September 21. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly survey for Monday, October 12, put on-highway diesel at $6.179 nationally, up $2.514 from a year ago, with the Gulf Coast at $5.809, the East Coast at $5.908, the Midwest at $6.259, the West Coast at $7.240, and California at $8.091.
Regular gasoline averaged $4.327 on Friday, up from $3.057 a year ago, about 42 percent. Diesel’s increase is nearly double that, and diesel is the fuel that moves food: tractors, combines, harvesters, irrigation pumps, refrigerated trucks, and rail locomotives.
What to watch: AAA updates daily at gasprices.aaa.com, and the EIA posts its weekly survey every Monday afternoon. If the Monday number clears $6.53, the record is gone.
Sources: AAA fuel prices, EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, The Center Square, October 15
Why is diesel so expensive in 2026?
Four causes, in order of size.
Crude oil. The EIA says crude accounted for about 51 percent of the retail diesel price on average from 2004 through 2025. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $90.42 a barrel on September 30 per AAA’s October 1 report, and The Center Square reports retail diesel is up almost 70 percent since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
Russia. Moscow extended its diesel export ban for a third time on September 30 as Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on refineries caused shortages inside Russia, including in the Krasnodar farm region during its own harvest. That diesel used to reach world markets.
Refineries and heating oil. Scheduled fall maintenance is heavy on the West Coast this year, per GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan, and the EIA notes that diesel and heating oil are practically the same fuel, so Northeast heating demand competes with trucks and tractors every fall.
Distance from the Gulf. The Gulf Coast refines about half of U.S. diesel, and prices rise with distance from it. On Thursday, October 15, AAA had Mississippi at $5.86, Iowa at $6.07, Indiana at $6.62, Illinois at a record $6.57, and California at $8.43.
On Tuesday, October 13, the first trading day after the holiday, November ultra low sulfur diesel futures rose almost 20 cents a gallon, about 5 percent, in two hours. Oil analyst Tom Kloza called the spikes “absolutely stunning.” On Wednesday the International Energy Agency said global diesel markets could stay tight past mid 2027 as Middle East and Russian output stays constrained.
What to watch: futures lead pump prices by two to three weeks, so Tuesday’s spike points to higher diesel into early November.
Sources: EIA, factors affecting diesel prices, AAA, October 1, The Center Square, October 15
How much does diesel add to the cost of a harvest?
The American Farm Bureau Federation worked it out on October 1 using USDA’s Illinois farm diesel price, which rose from $3.01 a gallon in September 2025 to $5.61 in September 2026, a $2.60 jump. Farm diesel is dyed and sold without the highway taxes, which total nearly 60 cents a gallon (24.4 cents federal plus a 35.5 cent state average). Multiplying $2.60 by the gallons each crop burns at harvest, from university extension budgets, gives the added cost per acre:
Winter wheat (planting this fall): $2.50
Soybeans: $3.56
Corn: $7.98 (about $2,227 on an average 279 acre corn farm)
Rice: $14.00 (about $8,337 on a 596 acre rice farm)
Potatoes: $18.23
Almonds: $18.67
Apples: $57.59
Then on Thursday, October 15, the California Farm Bureau released a survey of more than 1,000 California farmers and ranchers: 40 percent are reducing field work because of diesel, three in four report added financial stress, and more than half say lower diesel prices would help keep their operations viable. President Shannon Douglass said farmers “won’t survive if something doesn’t change.” California matters to every grocery cart: the state grew nearly two thirds of the nation’s vegetables, fruits, and nuts and recorded $59.4 billion in farm cash receipts in 2023, 11.3 percent of the U.S. total.
The Midwest harvest is also late. USDA’s Crop Progress report for October 11 had corn 33 percent harvested against a 39 percent five-year average, with Iowa at 14 percent, so late acres burn $6 fuel for longer.
What to do: Growers, the Farm Bureau’s per acre figures are a usable budget line for spring fuel; check whether your state has suspended dyed diesel penalties or fuel taxes (see the policy section below) before running farm fuel on the road.
Sources: AFBF Market Intel, October 1, Morning Ag Clips, California Farm Bureau survey, October 15, California Agricultural Statistics Review 2023 to 2024, DTN, USDA Crop Progress, October 13
How does diesel show up in grocery prices?
Diesel is not a line on the receipt. It lives in the gap between the farm price and the shelf price.
Blackberries show the gap. USDA’s National FOB Review for October 15 lists Mexican blackberries crossing through Arizona, California, and Texas at $10.00 to $14.00 per flat of twelve 6 ounce cups, mostly $10.00 to $12.00, including palletizing and cooling, with demand fairly light and the market about steady. That is 83 cents to $1.00 a cup. USDA’s National Retail Report dated October 9 had blackberries advertised at $2.36 per 5.6 to 6 ounce package across 5,212 store ads, down from $3.21 a week earlier and $3.06 a year ago. A 12 cup flat is therefore about $28.32 at retail against about $12 at the border. The $1.36 per cup in between pays for cooling, the truck, distribution, shrink, and the store’s margin.
USDA’s Economic Research Service measures the same thing for all food: in 2024 the farm share of the food dollar was 11.8 cents, with crop producers receiving 2.5 cents. The remaining 88.2 cents is the marketing bill, where fuel is embedded in trucking, processing, wholesale, and retail.
Store prices have held so far. The September Consumer Price Index, released October 14, had food at home up 1.8 percent over 12 months and fruits and vegetables up 3.7 percent, while energy was up 20.4 percent and fuel oil up 74.2 percent. Farmers and truckers have been absorbing the difference; the California survey is a measure of how long they can.
What to do: Shoppers, the diesel cost is in the miles, so what was grown near you carries less of it. This week, blackberries at $2.36 are the buy: freeze extras in a single layer on a sheet pan, then bag them.
Sources: USDA National FOB Review, October 15, USDA National Retail Report, October 9, USDA ERS Food Dollar Series, AFBF on the 2024 food dollar, March 23, 2026, BLS Consumer Price Index, September 2026
What is Washington doing about diesel prices?
Farm Bureau letter, October 1. AFBF President Zippy Duvall asked the President to temporarily suspend the 24.4 cent federal highway diesel tax and waive federal penalties for emergency on-road use of dyed diesel. Feedstuffs reported at least 10 states had already acted, listing 12: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas, with measures ranging from penalty waivers to fuel tax suspensions and higher hauling weight limits.
Dyed diesel order, October 5. The President signed an executive order allowing tax exempt red dyed diesel, normally limited to off-road and farm equipment, to be used as highway fuel through the end of 2026. The American Trucking Associations told members most truck stops lack the dedicated tanks and tax clearing systems to handle it without triggering IRS audits.
Russian fuel deal. A deal announced a week ago Friday would temporarily lift sanctions on Russian fuel exports, allowing about 300,000 tons of diesel to reach world markets immediately and 100,000 more in November. If shipped at once from Baltic or Black Sea ports, the first cargoes could reach the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts around November 1 or 2. The market’s verdict came Tuesday, when futures rose rather than fell.
What to do: Growers, check your own state’s list before using farm fuel on the road, and read the IRS rules if you do; the federal order does not change the paperwork at the pump.
Sources: Feedstuffs, October 2, The Center Square, October 15
Where do diesel prices go from here? What they depend on, and a prediction
Four things decide the next six months of diesel, in order of weight.
The Strait of Hormuz and Middle East supply. The IEA’s October 14 report put Gulf crude exports at 13.9 million barrels a day in September, over 75 percent of pre war levels, but Middle East refined product exports (the diesel itself) at 1.9 million barrels a day, still below half of the pre war 4.7 million. The EIA’s October 6 outlook assumes crude shut ins fall from 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter to 2.7 million in the first quarter of 2027, taking Brent from a $105 average this quarter to $84 for 2027. Diesel follows crude down only if that assumption holds.
Refinery capacity, not crude. The diesel refining margin (New York Harbor diesel minus Brent) was $72.51 a barrel on October 6, against a 2021 to 2025 average of $31.50. The IEA says easing Russian export sanctions is unlikely to change the balance much, because the constraint is damaged Russian refinery capacity, and it expects diesel tightness to last well into 2027, with inventories not rebuilt before the second half of 2027.
Inventories and winter. U.S. distillate stocks were 105.1 million barrels in the week ending October 2, 11.3 percent below the five year average and the lowest for that week in EIA data back to 1982. East Coast stocks were 32 percent below the five year average in September, and the EIA expects them to stay 20 to 30 percent below through the winter, with heating oil about 21 percent more expensive than last winter. Heating oil and diesel are practically the same fuel, so a cold Northeast winter competes directly with trucks and tractors; a strong El Niño is the wildcard on temperatures.
Demand destruction. The IEA projects world oil demand down 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026, with diesel about a quarter of the drop. Farmers cutting field work and fleets parking trucks are that figure in practice, and it is the main force pulling prices down.
The forecasts on the table. The EIA expects retail diesel to stay above $6 in October, then ease gradually to about $4.50 on average in 2027. NYMEX ultra low sulfur diesel futures settled October 13 at $4.93 for November, $4.78 for December, $4.68 for January, $4.27 for April, and $3.91 for July 2027; add the 2025 average retail markup of about $1.33 and that implies pump prices of roughly $6.26 in November, $6.01 in January, $5.60 in April, and $5.24 in July, by Energy News Beat’s arithmetic (an estimate, not a market quote). Futures lead pump prices by two to three weeks.
Angelo’s prediction (a read, not a guarantee): diesel holds between $6.00 and $6.50 through Thanksgiving, slips below $6 around the new year, reaches the low $5 range by summer 2027, and does not see $4 before 2028. Every one of those dates moves later with a cold Northeast winter, a Gulf Coast hurricane, or further strikes on Russian refineries, and the only thing that moves them earlier is the Strait of Hormuz reopening fully.
What to do: Growers, budget spring diesel at $5.50 or more, not $4, and if you buy ahead, the futures curve says the discount for waiting is small until spring. Shoppers, the trucking cost in produce does not fall before the new year, so plan menus around what is grown close to home through the holidays.
Sources: EIA press release and October STEO, October 6, Oil and Gas Journal on the IEA October Oil Market Report, October 14, Energy News Beat, futures curve and inventories, October 14, EIA, factors affecting diesel prices
Recall and food safety check.
Family Farmstead Dairy, LLC of Worcester, New York, announced on October 15 that it is recalling Family Farmstead Raw Mild Cheddar Cheese, labeled A2 Raw Cheddar, in 8 ounce clear plastic packages with green, red, and white labeling, sold to grocers in New York and New Jersey, lot and best by date 7/22/27. A sample tested in Maryland under the FDA’s Laboratory Flexible Funding Model program isolated two strains of Shiga toxin producing E. coli in two packages. No illnesses have been reported. E. coli O157:H7 causes diarrhea that is often bloody and can lead to hemolytic uremic syndrome, a form of kidney failure, with the highest risk in young children and older adults. What to do: do not eat it; throw it out or return it for a refund; questions to (607) 397-4044; if anyone who ate it develops bloody diarrhea, call a doctor and mention possible E. coli exposure. FDA notice, October 15
What’s in season now.
California kiwifruit runs October through May, peaking in December and January; USDA’s Economic Research Service put the preliminary 2026/27 crop at 66.1 million pounds, down 7 percent. Hayward kiwifruit averaged 56 cents each in the October 9 retail report; ripen in a loosely closed paper bag at room temperature for two to three days. Texas red grapefruit is being harvested in the Rio Grande Valley with small fruit after McAllen logged 101 days at or above 100 degrees, a record; red grapefruit averaged $1.45 each. Acorn squash averaged $1.08 a pound, level with $1.09 a year ago; Iowa State University Extension says do not cure it, hold it at 50 to 55 degrees away from apples and pears, and use it within 5 to 8 weeks. What to do: acorn squash is the buy of the week; winter squash is one seed packet in full sun after your last frost next spring. USDA Retail Report, October 9, FreshPlaza on USDA ERS Outlook, California Department of Education kiwi fact sheet, FreshPlaza, Texas grapefruit, October 12, Iowa State University Extension
Could you grow this? Figs.
Common figs need no second tree for pollination and bear on the current season’s wood, so a plant frozen to the ground can regrow and fruit. The University of Tennessee says fruit may appear after two years, with a harvest more likely in year three. The University of Kentucky’s fig budget uses 10 to 20 pounds per tree and warns that Kentucky trees rarely reach 10 pounds of marketable fruit. NC State: 15 to 20 feet between trees, full sun, soil pH 6.0 to 6.5, and 20 degrees F or lower can freeze plants to the ground; Texas A&M: figs usually tolerate sustained temperatures to about 17 degrees F. Celeste is reported hardy to 0 degrees F (University of Tennessee) and Chicago Hardy to 10 degrees F (Penn State). By region: zone 8 and warmer, plant Celeste or Brown Turkey in the ground; zone 7, Celeste or Chicago Hardy on the south side of a building with a heavy fall mulch; zone 6 and colder, Chicago Hardy in an 18 inch or larger pot moved to a garage below 15 to 20 degrees. What to do this month: choose a full sun spot, pull a soil test, and plan to plant dormant trees in late winter. Figs are one of the crops we install: Stop mowing grass, start growing fruit. Sources: University of Tennessee, University of Kentucky, NC State, Texas A&M, Penn State
Garden State minute
It has rained on each of the last five Sundays, and New Jersey’s pick-your-own farms are paying for it. Rebekah Modgery, assistant production manager and co-owner at Alstede Farms in Chester (Morris County), told News 12 New Jersey on October 12 that fall brings 60 to 70 percent of the farm’s business and this fall is tracking 20 to 30 percent down. Tim Stockel, owner of Happy Day Farm in Manalapan (Monmouth County), said the four day Columbus Day weekend is about 35 percent of his business and estimated the rain has cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. The 2022 Census of Agriculture counted 326 New Jersey farms with agritourism income totaling $29.1 million, an average of $89,345 per farm, up from 308 farms and $18.6 million in 2017. What to do: three October weekends are left; buy your pumpkin at a farm instead of a big box store, in any state. WJRZ, October 14, USDA NASS 2022 Census, New Jersey Table 7
From the farm
Tonight we are hosting my 20 year highschool reunion on the property so we are busy prepping for that! It looks beautiful and It just stopped raining, the weather is expected to be blear!
Own land? Stop mowing grass. Start growing fruit.
The only food with zero diesel miles is the food in your yard. If you own land anywhere in the country and want to turn it into a producing orchard, vineyard, or berry planting, Curated Nature can help: remote consulting and design for landowners nationwide, and full installation and ongoing management locally in Southern New Jersey. Berries typically begin producing in their second year, grapes in their third, and tree fruit in years three to five. The site visit is free. Turn your yard into a producing orchard.
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