Grocery Prices Rose 1.8 Percent in a Year While Gasoline Rose 34 Percent: What the September CPI Means for Your Food Budget
The Morning Harvest: Farm and Food News
No. 009 | Thursday, October 15, 2026
Today in 30 seconds
The September Consumer Price Index, released Wednesday, October 14, shows grocery prices up 1.8 percent over 12 months and down 0.1 percent for the month, against 3.7 percent for all items and 34.2 percent for gasoline. Eggs are down 20.6 percent; fresh fruit is up 4.9 percent.
No new food recalls October 10 to 14. FDA closed the Cyclospora iceberg lettuce investigation at 12,883 illnesses in 21 states, and Taylor Farms will stop harvesting iceberg in central Mexico during Cyclospora season.
Tomatoes are $1.95 a pound at retail. Mexico supplies about 90 percent of U.S. tomato imports and now pays a 17 percent duty, with 2026 exports forecast down 7 percent.
In season: green cabbage at 73 cents a pound, yellow onions at 73 cents, and spinach at $2.25 a bunch.
Could you grow garlic? Plant in the next two weeks in the North, through mid January in the South; a 10 foot row yields 4 pounds or more.
Garden State minute: New Jersey has preserved 2,893 farms and 253,143 acres, and here is how a landowner applies.
What did the September 2026 CPI say about grocery prices?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September 2026 Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. The headline: all items rose 0.6 percent in September and 3.7 percent over the past 12 months, driven by energy. Food was the quiet part of the report.
Food at home (groceries): down 0.1 percent in September, up 1.8 percent over 12 months.
Food away from home (restaurants): up 0.2 percent in September, up 3.5 percent over 12 months.
Food overall: flat for the month, up 2.5 percent over 12 months.
Energy: up 5.2 percent in September, up 20.4 percent over 12 months. Gasoline: up 9.1 percent in September, up 34.2 percent over 12 months.
Inside the six grocery groups, over 12 months: cereals and bakery up 2.1 percent; meats, poultry, fish, and eggs up 0.3 percent; dairy down 0.7 percent; fruits and vegetables up 3.7 percent; nonalcoholic beverages up 3.8 percent; other food at home up 1.8 percent. Individual items: eggs down 20.6 percent, beef and veal up 3.5 percent, fresh fruits up 4.9 percent, fresh vegetables up 2.8 percent, coffee up 7.1 percent.
Why groceries lagged the rest: eggs fell more than 20 percent from a year ago and dairy fell, which pulled the whole food at home index down while produce and coffee rose. FMI, the grocery industry's trade association, called the report "welcome news for grocery shoppers," while its policy vice president Andy Harig warned that record high diesel prices tied to the conflict in Iran could reach grocery supply chains and add price pressure in the coming months.
What to do with this: shift the fall menu toward the categories that fell (eggs, dairy, and the meat group, which was nearly flat) and away from the ones still climbing (fresh fruit, coffee, restaurant meals). For fruit, buy what is in season or frozen. For a grower, the gap between 1.8 percent food inflation and 20 percent energy inflation is the cost squeeze to plan around this winter: fuel, fertilizer, and freight are rising faster than the prices customers will pay.
Sources: BLS, Consumer Price Index, September 2026; FMI statement on September CPI, October 14, 2026
Is there a food recall this week? FDA closes the Cyclospora lettuce outbreak, Taylor Farms changes course
FDA and USDA posted no new food recalls from Friday, October 10 through Wednesday, October 14 (the only new FDA entry on October 14 was a hospital drug). So this week's check closes the file on the largest produce outbreak of 2026.
FDA concluded its investigation on October 2, 2026 into Cyclospora illnesses linked to shredded iceberg lettuce from central Mexico, processed by Taylor Farms de Mexico and recalled July 17, 2026. CDC declared the outbreak over on September 11.
Final count: 12,883 illnesses, 570 hospitalizations, and 2 deaths (both in Michigan, in people with significant underlying conditions), across 21 states: AR, GA, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, MA, ME, MI, MO, NE, NH, NC, OH, OK, PA, TN, TX, VA, WV. Illness onsets ran June 22 to August 17.
FDA samples taken in Mexico found Cyclospora in a tank holding outgoing wastewater at the processing facility and in a drainage ditch at an iceberg grower identified by traceback. FDA says there is not yet enough evidence to say how the lettuce became contaminated.
On October 8, 2026, Taylor Farms founder and CEO Bruce Taylor published a letter saying the company will indefinitely suspend harvesting and processing of iceberg lettuce from central Mexico for the U.S. and Canada during the CDC defined Cyclospora season, expand year round health monitoring and irrigation water and crop testing there, and join a public private task force with FDA.
How it works: Cyclospora is a parasite spread through water and soil contaminated with human waste. It has a U.S. season that runs roughly May through August, which is why summer produce from the tropics is where outbreaks concentrate.
What to do: CDC says washing alone cannot guarantee the parasite's removal, but cooking kills it (at least 158 F). Next summer, cook imported leafy greens and cilantro or buy local, and if you have diarrhea that lasts more than a few days, ask for a Cyclospora test, because it is not part of a standard stool panel.
Sources: FDA outbreak investigation page, updated October 2, 2026; Taylor Farms letter, October 8, 2026; CDC, Preventing Cyclosporiasis; FDA recalls list
Why do tomatoes cost $1.95 a pound, and what does the 17 percent duty on Mexico do?
The USDA National Retail Report for October 9, 2026 lists tomatoes at a national average of $1.95 a pound (last week $2.00, last year $2.03), plum or Roma tomatoes at $1.27 (last year $1.17), and grape tomatoes at $2.36 a pint (last year $2.85).
At the shipping point (USDA National FOB Review, October 9, 2026):
Mexico crossings through Southern California and San Luis, Arizona, vine ripe 5x5s, two layer cartons: $18 to $21, mostly $18. Demand good, market steady.
Eastern Tennessee and the Virginia Eastern Shore, mature green field tomatoes, 25 pound cartons: $25.35 for the larger sizes, about $1.01 a pound, with supply light and demand good.
California Central District, mature greens, 25 pound cartons: $17.35 to $19.35, about 70 to 77 cents a pound.
The policy underneath: Mexico accounts for roughly 90 percent of U.S. tomato imports, and shipments grew from 1.3 billion pounds in 1995 to 4.4 billion pounds in 2024. On July 14, 2025, the Commerce Department ended the Tomato Suspension Agreement, which had set floor prices since 1996, and applied a 17 percent antidumping duty on the value of every Mexican tomato shipment. Mexican growers asked for the order to be revoked; on June 30, 2026, the U.S. International Trade Commission denied the request and the duty stays. USDA's June 2026 report from Mexico forecasts 2026 Mexican tomato acreage at about 93,900 acres, down 11 percent, production at 2.6 million metric tons, down 9 percent, and exports at 1.8 million tons, down 7 percent, with the duty the primary driver.
Why the shelf price has not jumped yet: October is still domestic field season in the East and California, so Mexican volume is a smaller share of the pile. Mexico's shipments peak in winter, when Florida is the only major domestic source, so January through March is when a 7 percent cut in Mexican supply meets a 17 percent duty.
What to do: shoppers, Eastern field tomatoes at $25 a carton are the better fruit right now and will be gone after frost, so buy local while it lasts and expect winter prices to run higher than last year. Growers and landowners, this is the argument for a high tunnel: a covered tomato crop that ships into November, when Eastern supply is light and demand is good, sells into the strongest price window of the year.
Sources: USDA National Retail Report, October 9, 2026; USDA National FOB Review, October 9, 2026; CSIS, Rotten Tomatoes, August 19, 2025; Fresh Fruit Portal, USITC decision, June 30, 2026; Fresh Fruit Portal, USDA FAS Mexico tomato outlook, June 8, 2026
What produce is in season in mid October? Cabbage, onions, and spinach
Retail prices are national average advertised prices from the USDA National Retail Report dated October 9, 2026. Shipping point prices are from the USDA National FOB Review of the same date.
Green cabbage: 73 cents a pound, versus 75 cents last week and 98 cents a year ago, a 26 percent drop the report itself flagged. New York is shipping 50 pound sacks of large heads at mostly $7 (14 cents a pound), Michigan 50 pound cartons at $14, and California's Central Coast 45 pound cartons at mostly $28.90 to $31.55. Tip from Purdue Extension: choose a head that is firm and heavy for its size with crisp leaves and no splits or soft spots; a whole head keeps 5 to 6 days in the refrigerator, and a cold room or root cellar holds it far longer.
Yellow onions: 73 cents a pound, versus 99 cents last week and 79 cents a year ago. The new storage crop from Washington's Columbia Basin, Oregon, and Idaho is $13 to $15 per 50 pound sack for jumbos, about 26 to 30 cents a pound, with the market steady. Tip from University of Minnesota Extension: cured onions keep about four months at 32 to 40 F and about 65 percent humidity, so a cold garage or unheated porch beats the kitchen counter.
Spinach: $2.25 a bunch, versus $1.39 last week and $1.50 a year ago. California's Central Coast is shipping bunched 24 count cartons at mostly $14.45 to $17.90, market slightly lower. Tip from Mississippi State Extension: look for dark green, crisp leaves, keep it dry in a sealed container lined with a paper towel, and rinse just before use, because wet spinach spoils fast.
What to do: cabbage and storage onions are the cheapest produce in the store this week, so this is the week to cook in bulk (soup, slaw, sauerkraut). All three grow in a backyard garden; cabbage and spinach are spring and fall crops, and onions go in as sets in spring.
Sources: USDA National Retail Report, October 9, 2026; USDA National FOB Review, October 9, 2026; Purdue Extension FoodLink, cabbage; University of Minnesota Extension, harvesting and storing vegetables; Mississippi State Extension, spinach fact sheet
Could you grow garlic? When to plant, spacing, yield, and hardneck versus softneck by region
Garlic is planted in fall and harvested the following summer, which makes the next two weeks the planting window for most of the country. Figures below come from University of Minnesota, West Virginia University, Washington State University, and University of Arkansas extension publications.
When: one to two weeks after the first killing frost in the North (Minnesota, West Virginia). In the South, plant in fall through mid January at the latest (Arkansas). Eastern Washington plants September to October, western Washington in November (WSU). Garlic needs a 6 to 8 week cold period to form a bulb.
Spacing and depth: cloves 4 to 6 inches apart, rows 6 to 24 inches apart depending on the guide, planted with the base 2 to 3 inches deep, pointed end up. Mulch 3 to 4 inches of straw or leaves after planting.
Site: full sun (at least 6 hours), well drained soil, pH 6.0 to 7.0 (Arkansas allows 5.5 to 7.0). Do not plant where onions, leeks, chives, or shallots grew in the last 3 to 4 years.
Yield: 4 pounds or more per 10 foot row (WVU), or 10 to 30 bulbs per 10 foot row (WSU). A bulb carries 8 to 10 cloves, and each clove becomes a plant, so one bulb plants about 4 feet of row.
Types: hardneck (Rocambole, Porcelain, Purple Stripe, Spanish Roja, German Extra Hardy) suits cold winters and produces edible scapes; softneck (Artichoke, Silverskin, Mild French Silverskin) suits hot dry southern climates, has more cloves per bulb, braids, and stores longest, up to 8 months for some cultivars.
Harvest and storage: late June to late July, when the lower leaves brown and about half the upper leaves are still green. Cure 3 to 4 weeks in a warm, dry, airy place, trim, and store cool and dry. Save the largest cloves for next fall's planting.
What to do this month: order seed garlic from a nursery or seed company, not the grocery store (Minnesota Extension notes grocery garlic, mostly softneck, does poorly in cold climates). Soil test the bed, lime if pH is under 5.8, and plant after the first frost in the North or any time now in the South.
A garlic and vegetable bed is the simplest planting we design for landowners, and the soil test is step one: Turn your yard into a producing orchard.
Sources: University of Minnesota Extension, Growing garlic in home gardens; West Virginia University Extension, Growing Garlic; WSU Extension FS162E, Growing Garlic in Home Gardens; University of Arkansas Extension FSA6085, Garlic
Garden State minute: how New Jersey has preserved 253,000 acres of farmland, and how a landowner applies
New Jersey's Farmland Preservation Program, run by the State Agriculture Development Committee (SADC), had preserved 2,893 farms and 253,143 acres as of September 8, 2025, with 214 more applications in process. The state passed the 250,000 acre mark in October 2023 at the 134 acre Mecouch Family Farm in Quinton, Salem County, the 2,847th farm preserved, 40 years after the Agriculture Retention and Development Act created the program. That is more than one third of all farmland in New Jersey; the stated goal is at least 500,000 acres.
How it works:
The landowner sells the nonagricultural development rights. The land stays privately owned and can be sold, but the deed restriction runs with it permanently. Existing homes stay, and the owner can reserve a limited number of future house sites.
The price comes from two independent certified appraisals; the highest certified value is the ceiling for the offer. Since April 7, 2025, a Statewide Formula option starts at 50 percent of the land's unrestricted value and can reach 80 percent, or 90 percent with two optional deed restrictions. As of September 2025, 70 of the 214 pending applicants chose the formula route.
Eligibility: the farm must be in an adopted Agricultural Development Area and eligible for farmland assessment. Over 10 acres, at least 50 percent of the land (or 25 acres, whichever is less) must be tillable. At 10 acres or less, the farm needs at least $2,500 a year in documented agricultural sales and 75 percent tillable.
Preserved farms can also get cost share grants for soil and water projects and wildlife fencing, which averaged 42 percent of project cost from 2017 to 2025.
What to do: if you own farmland in New Jersey, start with your county agriculture development board or the SADC coordinator for your county; the SADC guide (updated June 26, 2026) walks through the application. Note one rule: a sitting member of a county board or municipal agriculture committee must resign before applying. Outside New Jersey, most states and USDA's Natural Resources Conservation Service run agricultural easement programs on the same principle: you are paid to keep the land in farming.
Sources: SADC Farmland Preservation Update, September 8, 2025; NJDA press release, 250,000 acres, October 13, 2023; SADC Guide and Resource Booklet, updated June 26, 2026
From the farm
[ANGELO: two or three sentences on what you are doing on the farm today and why]
Own land? Stop mowing grass and start growing fruit
If you own land anywhere in the country and want to turn it into a producing orchard, vineyard, or berry planting, Curated Nature can help. We design, install, and optionally maintain backyard orchards, vineyards, berry plantings, and gardens, starting with a site assessment and soil test, then a design with climate appropriate varieties, installation with irrigation and trellising, optional ongoing maintenance, and harvest support. Berries typically begin producing in their second year, grapes in their third, and tree fruit in years three to five. Full service installation and ongoing management are offered locally in Southern New Jersey; remote consulting and design only plans are available to landowners nationwide. Every job is custom quoted.
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