The Morning Harvest: Farm and Food News, No. 024, Monday, November 2, 2026
Today in 30 seconds
Wheat: Chicago December futures closed at $6.0350 on October 30, a ninth straight weekly loss, and 2027 farm safety net enrollment opens today.
Recall: the CDC counts 28 Salmonella illnesses in 13 states tied to Little Wicomico Oyster Company raw oysters from Virginia.
Cost: Mexican blackberries run mostly $14 to $16 a flat of 12 six ounce cups, while retail ads fell to $2.63 a cup.
In season: sweet potatoes average $1.29 a pound in ads, up from $1.07 a year ago.
Grow: pears need a second variety nearby, and Asian pears often fruit by the third season.
Garden State: Rutgers won a $2.4 million USDA grant for a new greenhouse in New Brunswick.
Buy local: pasture-raised beef and eggs, pastured chicken, and our own blackberries at our farm stand in Hammonton, NJ. Free pickup by appointment only. See the price list: www.curatednature.co/farm-stand
Why is wheat down nine weeks in a row, and what does the farm safety net pay?
What happened. Chicago wheat futures fell for a ninth straight week through Friday, October 30, 2026. The December contract, which is today's agreed price for wheat delivered in December, settled at $6.0350 a bushel (Ag Optimus; Brownfield rounded it to $6.03 1/2). Bloomberg called the eighth straight weekly loss the longest losing streak since 1997. We could not confirm how the ninth week compares with that record. One correction matters here: this is a record streak, not a record low price. TradingEconomics shows a high of $7.67 on August 28, a single source, so by our arithmetic the contract has lost about $1.60 a bushel since then. It is also a four-month low (24/7 Wall St, a single source). Futures are about 13 percent above a year ago, our arithmetic from that same TradingEconomics series.
What the farmer and the shopper actually get. A farmer does not receive the Chicago price. The local elevator pays the futures price plus or minus basis, which is the local cash price minus the futures price. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service grain bids on October 28 showed Kansas at $5.63 in the northwest and $6.11 at southern terminals, reported by IndexBox, a single outlet. From the elevator the grain moves to a mill, then becomes flour, then goes to a baker and a grocer. USDA's Economic Research Service reports that farmers received 10.5 of the 56.5 cents a pound that flour sold for in 2024, an 18.5 percent farm share. For white pan bread the farm share was 3 percent in 2016 and 4 percent in 2017, and ERS has no newer figure that we found. Our arithmetic puts the wheat in a one pound loaf at about 14 cents, using a 72 percent flour extraction rule of thumb we did not verify.
Why the price is falling. Four pressures stack up. First, the Black Sea risk premium, the extra money buyers pay when Russian or Ukrainian supply might be cut off, is fading as hopes for Russia and Ukraine talks grow. Second, the world crop is large: USDA's October 9 report puts 2026/27 world production at 822.39 million tonnes. Third, American exports are weak. Commitments stand at 11.52 million tonnes against 16.30 million a year ago, down 29.3 percent by our arithmetic, and hard red winter commitments fell 62.6 percent by our arithmetic (Price Group, citing USDA export sales, October 29). Fourth, funds are positioned for lower prices. Managed money held a net short of 74,859 Chicago contracts as of October 27, up from 29,543 on October 6 (Ag Optimus, citing CFTC data, a single source). The odd part is that the American crop is small. USDA's October estimate is 1,534 million bushels at 48.1 bushels an acre, with ending stocks of 740 million bushels and a season average price of $6.30. Farmers face a low price on fewer bushels.
What it costs on the farm. USDA's Economic Research Service projects 2026 wheat costs of $409 per planted acre, including $160 of operating cost, as reported by Farm Bureau Market Intel on January 21. Multiply USDA's 48.1 bushel yield by the $6.30 price and revenue is $303 an acre, by our arithmetic. That leaves a loss of about $106 an acre, and total cost works out to about $8.50 a bushel. Both are our arithmetic, and they are rough, because USDA yields count harvested acres while ERS costs count planted acres. For a hypothetical 1,000 acre farm, that is about a $106,000 shortfall before any safety net, again our arithmetic.
How the safety net works. Price Loss Coverage, or PLC, is run by county offices of the USDA Farm Service Agency. It pays when the national average farm price for the marketing year falls below the $6.35 statutory reference price. The 2025 crop earned $1.29 a bushel, paid in October 2026 (K-State agmanager). USDA's $6.30 against $6.35 projects only about $0.05 a bushel for the 2026 crop, our arithmetic. The final price is set June 30, 2027, and payment cannot come before October 1, 2027. A marketing assistance loan at $3.72 a bushel is a floor, not a profit. We are not stating a payment cap, because sources we found give $155,000 and $164,000. The 2026 ARC and PLC election closes December 11, 2026. Miss it and the farm keeps its 2025 election but receives no 2026 payments. With PLC near five cents, the choice between PLC and the county revenue option, ARC-CO, matters. Enrollment for 2027 opens today, November 2, and closes March 15, 2027.
What is not known yet. The final 2026 price, whether a Black Sea shipping deal materializes, and how this streak compares with 1997 are all open. The next USDA WASDE and Crop Production report is Tuesday, November 10. For precedent, not prediction, the marketing year average farm price was $7.77 in 2012/13, $6.87, $5.99, $4.89, and $3.89 in 2016/17. By our count that slide ran across four marketing years.
Reaction. Todd Hubbs, an Oklahoma State crop marketing specialist, wrote on October 20 that weak exports weigh on prices and that El Nino rain limits rallies. Kansas State's Rich Llewelyn said on June 5 that prices below reference prices make PLC payments likely. DTN, reported secondhand by 24/7 Wall St on October 27, asks whether the selloff is nearing its end. The National Association of Wheat Growers issued no fresh statement this week. Its May 12 statement from CEO Sam Kieffer said growers cut acres over input costs and asked Congress for lower fertilizer and fuel costs. Farm Bureau says expense relief remains limited. We found no named critic of the policy.
What to do
Make your 2026 ARC or PLC election before December 11, comparing the county option against PLC's roughly five cents, using the base acres and yields your FSA office has on file.
Look at the 2027 enrollment window, open November 2 through March 15, 2027, and ask FSA about the multi-year option.
Price grain against your local basis, not the Chicago headline. March futures sit about 13.5 cents over December (Ag Optimus), so weigh that against storage and interest.
Know your own cost per acre. The national projection is $409, and your number decides what a given price means.
Landowners: talk to your operator before 2027 rent decisions. If you share in the crop you can enroll, so check your base acres with FSA. Shoppers: farmers get 18.5 percent of flour's price, so cheaper wheat will not move your grocery bill much.
Sources: Reuters via MarketScreener, Oct 30; Bloomberg, Oct 23; Ag Optimus, Nov 2; USDA WASDE, Oct 9; USDA ERS flour farm share, 2024; Farm Bureau Market Intel, Jan 21; USDA FSA ARC/PLC fact sheet, 2026; K-State agmanager, Jul 10; Price Group, Oct 29; IndexBox on USDA AMS grain bids, Oct 28; TradingEconomics wheat series, Oct 30; Texas Farm Bureau, Sep 18; RFD-TV, Jun 5; Oklahoma Farm Report, Oct 20; NAWG, May 12.
Which oysters are linked to the Salmonella outbreak?
Raw oysters from Little Wicomico Oyster Company in Northumberland County, Virginia, are linked to a Salmonella Telelkebir outbreak. Salmonella causes diarrhea, fever, and cramps, and oysters can look normal while carrying it. The CDC updated its count on October 30 to 28 cases in 13 states. Five of the 22 people with hospital information were hospitalized, and there were no deaths. The company recalled the oysters on October 9, and Virginia closed the river to harvest the same day. The FDA's October 30 safety alert says the oysters shipped to 17 jurisdictions, including New Jersey. The only identifier is the harvest window, September 18 through October 8, 2026, because no lot codes, brands, or package sizes were published. This is shellfish, not produce, but it is the only item this week with illnesses across states. Young children, older adults, and people with weak immune systems face higher risk.
What to do: Don't eat, serve, or sell these oysters, and throw out any in the freezer. Wash surfaces and containers with hot soapy water. See a doctor for fever over 102 degrees, bloody diarrhea, diarrhea lasting more than 2 days, or severe vomiting.
Sources: FDA safety alert, Oct. 30, 2026; CDC outbreak notice, updated Oct. 30, 2026.
Why are blackberries so expensive in winter?
Much of the fresh blackberry supply on shelves now is trucked in from Mexico. USDA's National FOB Review, dated October 23, 2026, lists Mexican crossings at $13 to $16 a flat of 12 six ounce cups, mostly $14 to $16, about steady. That is roughly $1.17 to $1.33 a cup, by our arithmetic. Guatemalan air freighted berries run $25 to $28 a flat, showing thin supply elsewhere. USDA's retail report for October 30 shows six ounce ads at $2.63 on 5,448 ads, down from $3.02 last week and $2.72 a year ago. The gap is about $1.30 to $1.45 a cup, but the reports are a week apart, so it is not a margin. Naturipe's Jerry Moran says Mexican volumes are climbing, a single source.
What to do: Shoppers, compare the six ounce cup, not the pint. Landowners, the winter supply leans on Mexico, so a planting's value is summer fruit you cannot buy fresh in winter.
Sources: USDA AMS National FOB Review, Oct. 23, 2026; USDA AMS weekly retail report, Oct. 30, 2026; Fresh Fruit Portal, Oct. 15, 2026.
What's in season now?
Sweet potatoes, cranberries, and Bartlett pears are the ads to watch this week. Sweet potatoes average $1.29 a pound in USDA's October 30 retail report, up from $1.21 last week and $1.07 a year ago, and a 3 pound bag is $3.24. North Carolina grows about 60% of the US crop, per AgMRC citing 2020 data. A 12 ounce bag of cranberries is $2.51, below $2.65 a year ago. One Wisconsin grower estimates that state's crop is down about a third, which is a grower's estimate, not a USDA forecast. Bartlett pears are $1.86 a pound, up from $1.58 a year ago. USDA's wholesale report did not list flat prices for pears or cranberries, so we cannot show a flat comparison.
What to do: Do not refrigerate sweet potatoes. NC State Extension says to store them at 55 to 65 degrees F and use them within about 2 weeks. Sweet potatoes grow from slips in spring.
Sources: USDA AMS weekly retail report, Oct. 30, 2026; NC State Extension, Burke County, undated; AgMRC sweet potato profile, NASS 2020 data; FreshPlaza, Oct. 29, 2026.
Could you grow pears?
Yes, if you have full sun, patience, and room for two trees. Most pears are self-unfruitful, which means they need a second compatible variety, or a neighbor's tree, to set fruit, per University of Minnesota, Virginia Tech, and Arkansas extension. Virginia Tech says to plant at least 16 feet apart. Soil pH should be about 6.0 to 6.5. Timing is the hard part. Virginia Tech says Asian pears often fruit by the third season, while Minnesota says trees can take 3 to 10 years to begin fruiting. Extension sources do not publish a yield per tree, so we are not giving one. Fire blight, a bacterial disease, limits pears in the South per University of Georgia. Heavy pruning and extra fertilizer feed it.
What to do: Soil test now and choose blight resistant varieties. In cold zones, wrap trunks and fence against deer and voles. In the Mid-Atlantic, dormant trees can go in late fall.
Sources: University of Minnesota Extension, reviewed 2026; Virginia Tech Extension, Sept. 14, 2020; University of Georgia Extension, Mar. 4, 2026; University of Arkansas Extension FSA6059, undated.
What is Rutgers building with its USDA greenhouse grant?
Rutgers received $2.4 million from USDA's National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) under its Research Facilities Act Program. The money will replace an aging greenhouse and renovate the headhouse, the working building beside it, at the Healthy Harvest site on Jones Avenue in New Brunswick. Rutgers announced the award on October 28, 2026. Cara Cuite is the principal investigator. The project is one of 36 funded in this round, which totals more than $121 million nationwide. Only Rutgers reports the 36, while Arkansas confirmed the $121 million on October 26 and won $2.5 million. Healthy Harvest cites a USDA estimate that 10.7% of New Jersey residents are food insecure. It also reports about 135,000 pounds of food donated to pantries in 2024. No construction timeline was given.
What to do: In New Jersey, visit the Rutgers Community Farmers Market at the site. Elsewhere, ask your land grant university's extension farm whether it applied, and watch nifa.usda.gov.
Sources: Rutgers SEBS release, Oct. 28, 2026; Rutgers Healthy Harvest, undated; University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, Oct. 26, 2026.
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